Optimal technology choice and investment timing: A stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production
AbstractIn this paper we develop an economic model that explains the decision-making problem under uncertainty of an industrial firm that wants to invest in a process technology. More specifically, the decision is between making an irreversible investment in a combined heat-and-power production (cogeneration) system, or to invest in a conventional heat-only generation system (steam boiler) and to purchase all electricity from the grid. In our model we include the main economic and technical variables of the investment decision process. We also account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in volatile energy prices that can greatly affect the valuation of the investment project. The dynamic stochastic model presented allows us to simultaneously determine the optimal technology choice and investment timing. We apply the theoretical model and illustrate our main findings with a numerical example that is based on realistic cost values for industrial oil- or gas-fired cogeneration and heat-only generation in Switzerland. We also briefly discuss expected effects of a CO2 tax on the investment decision.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.
Volume (Year): 29 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco
Other versions of this item:
- Reinhard Madlener & Marcel Wickart, 2004. "Optimal Technology Choice and Investment Timing: A Stochastic Model of Industrial Cogeneration vs. Heat-Only Production," CEPE Working paper series 04-37, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- D92 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
- O33 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
- Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
- Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bonilla, David & Akisawa, Atsushi & Kashiwagi, Takao, 2003. "Modelling the adoption of industrial cogeneration in Japan using manufacturing plant survey data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 895-910, July.
- Frayer, Julia & Uludere, Nazli Z., 2001. "What Is It Worth? Application of Real Options Theory to the Valuation of Generation Assets," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(8), pages 40-51, October.
- Erkka Näsäkkälä & Stein- Erik Fleten, 2004.
"Flexibility and Technology Choice in Gas Fired Power Plant Investments,"
0405004, EconWPA, revised 06 Apr 2006.
- Nasakkala, Erkka & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2005. "Flexibility and technology choice in gas fired power plant investments," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 371-393.
- Anandalingam, G., 1985. "Government policy and industrial investment in cogeneration in the USA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 117-126, April.
- McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-49, June.
- Dismukes, David E. & Kleit, Andrew N., 1999. "Cogeneration and electric power industry restructuring," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 153-166, May.
- Dobbs, Ian M., 1982. "Combined heat and power economics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 276-285, October.
- Peter Zweifel & Konstantin Beck, 1987. "Utilities and Cogeneration: Some Regulatory Problems," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-15.
- Kenneth Rose & John F. McDonald, 1991. "Economics of Electricity Self-Generation by Industrial Firms," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 47-66.
- Keppo, Jussi & Lu, Hao, 2003. "Real options and a large producer: the case of electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 459-472, September.
- Chi-Keung Woo, 1988. "Inefficiency of Avoided Cost Pricing of Cogenerated Power," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 103-113.
- Paul L. Joskow & Donald R. Jones, 1983. "The Simple Economics of Industrial Cogeneration," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-22.
- Silvia Banfi & Massimo Filippini & Andrea Horehájová, 2007.
"Using a Choice Experiment to Estimate the Benefits of a Reduction of Externalities in Urban Areas with Special Focus on Electrosmog,"
CEPE Working paper series
07-58, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
- Silvia Banfi & Massimo Filippini & Andrea Horeh�jov�, 2012. "Using a choice experiment to estimate the benefits of a reduction of externalities in urban areas with special focus on electrosmog," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 387-397, January.
- Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Maribu, Karl, 2009. "Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 25-37, January.
- Somayeh Heydari & Nick Ovenden & Afzal Siddiqui, 2012. "Real options analysis of investment in carbon capture and sequestration technology," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 109-138, February.
- William E., Lilley & Luke J., Reedman & Liam D., Wagner & Colin F., Alie & Anthony R., Szatow, 2012.
"An economic evaluation of the potential for distributed energy in Australia,"
Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 277-289.
- William Lilley & Luke Reedman & Liam Wagner & Colin Alie & Anthony Szatow, 2012. "An economic evaluation of the potential for distributed energy in Australia," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 16, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
- Wittmann, Nadine & Yildiz, Özgür, 2013. "A microeconomic analysis of decentralized small scale biomass based CHP plants—The case of Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 123-129.
- Svensson, Elin & Berntsson, Thore & Strömberg, Ann-Brith & Patriksson, Michael, 2009. "An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 680-685, February.
- Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012.
"Investment in new power generation under uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs. condensing plants in a copula-based analysis,"
Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 31-44.
- Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Investment in New Power Generation under Uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs Condensing Plants in a Copula-Based Analysis," FCN Working Papers 12/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
- Silvia Banfi & Massimo Filippini & Andrea Horehájová, 2007. "Hedonic Price Functions for Zurich and Lugano with Special Focus on Electrosmog," CEPE Working paper series 07-57, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
- Himpler, Sebastian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Repowering of Wind Turbines: Economics and Optimal Timing," FCN Working Papers 19/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
- Greening, Lorna A. & Boyd, Gale & Roop, Joseph M., 2007. "Modeling of industrial energy consumption: An introduction and context," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 599-608, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.