IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cee/wpcepe/03-27.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Economics of Adoption of Industrial Cogeneration: A Deterministic Model in Continuous Time

Author

Listed:
  • Reinhard Madlener

    (Center for Energy Policy and Economics CEPE, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Marcel Wickart

    (Center for Energy Policy and Economics CEPE, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract

We conceptualize and model the decision-making problem of an industrial investor having the choice to adopt either some cogeneration or some heat-only generating technology, or a combination of the two. The deterministic model suggested is specified in continuous time, takes a lifetime perspective, and explicitly accounts for the impact of technical change and variations in other parameters on the optimal timing to adopt a cogeneration system and the optimal capacity choice/mix. The firm is flexible in postponing the investment decision. Uncertainty is incorporated by varying energy prices and base load duration. In a sensitivity analysis we show that the optimal capacity decision can change discontinuously due to regime shifts caused by changes in key variables, making investment decisions risky (risk of a suboptimal capacity choice) and optimal policy design very challenging. In numerical simulations, we provide evidence that technical progress and other changes in other important parameters can affect the optimal timing of adoption and the optimal capacity mix in important ways. Hence, if adopters are heterogeneous, this also has important implications on the optimal diffusion path of CHP technology. At the energy policy level, our findings of discrete jumps in the optimal cogeneration capacity level call for tailored cogeneration policies according to the specific characteristics of the firms, or industrial branches. At the more general level, the model could be useful for any kind of co-production where by-products can either be sold in the market or, alternatively, used as an input in some other production process of the firm concerned.

Suggested Citation

  • Reinhard Madlener & Marcel Wickart, 2003. "The Economics of Adoption of Industrial Cogeneration: A Deterministic Model in Continuous Time," CEPE Working paper series 03-27, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:cee:wpcepe:03-27
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepe.ethz.ch/publications/workingPapers/CEPE_WP27.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stoneman, Paul & Kwon, Myung Joong, 1996. "Technology Adoption and Firm Profitability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 952-962, July.
    2. Rosenberg, Nathan, 1976. "On Technological Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(343), pages 523-535, September.
    3. Strachan, Neil & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2002. "Distributed generation and distribution utilities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 649-661, June.
    4. Kwon, Oh Sang & Yun, Won-Cheol, 2003. "Measuring economies of scope for cogeneration systems in Korea: a nonparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 331-338, July.
    5. Reinhard Madlener & Marcel Wickart, 2004. "Diffusion of Cogeneration in Swiss Industries: Economics, Technical Change, Field of Application, and Framework Conditions," Energy & Environment, , vol. 15(2), pages 223-237, March.
    6. Anandalingam, G., 1985. "Government policy and industrial investment in cogeneration in the USA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 117-126, April.
    7. Ireland, N & Stoneman, P, 1986. "Technological Diffusion, Expectations and Welfare," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 283-304, July.
    8. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    9. Chi-Keung Woo, 1988. "Inefficiency of Avoided Cost Pricing of Cogenerated Power," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 103-113.
    10. Bonilla, David & Akisawa, Atsushi & Kashiwagi, Takao, 2003. "Modelling the adoption of industrial cogeneration in Japan using manufacturing plant survey data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 895-910, July.
    11. Fox-Penner, Peter S., 1990. "Regulating independent power producers : Lessons of the PURPA approach," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 117-141, April.
    12. Reinhard Madlener & Christiane Schmid, 2003. "Adoption and Diffusion of Decentralised Energy Conversion Technologies: The Success of Engine Co-Generation in Germany," Energy & Environment, , vol. 14(5), pages 627-662, September.
    13. Massoud Karshenas & Paul L. Stoneman, 1993. "Rank, Stock, Order, and Epidemic Effects in the Diffusion of New Process Technologies: An Empirical Model," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 24(4), pages 503-528, Winter.
    14. Dobbs, Ian M., 1982. "Combined heat and power economics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 276-285, October.
    15. Peter Zweifel & Konstantin Beck, 1987. "Utilities and Cogeneration: Some Regulatory Problems," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-15.
    16. Dismukes, David E. & Kleit, Andrew N., 1999. "Cogeneration and electric power industry restructuring," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 153-166, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Silvia Banfi & Massimo Filippini & Andrea Horehájová, 2012. "Using a choice experiment to estimate the benefits of a reduction of externalities in urban areas with special focus on electrosmog," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 387-397, January.
    2. Silvia Banfi & Massimo Filippini & Andrea Horehájová, 2007. "Hedonic Price Functions for Zurich and Lugano with Special Focus on Electrosmog," CEPE Working paper series 07-57, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wickart, Marcel & Madlener, Reinhard, 2007. "Optimal technology choice and investment timing: A stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 934-952, July.
    2. Reinhard Madlener & Marcel Wickart, 2004. "Diffusion of Cogeneration in Swiss Industries: Economics, Technical Change, Field of Application, and Framework Conditions," Energy & Environment, , vol. 15(2), pages 223-237, March.
    3. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Development of cogeneration in Germany: A mean-variance portfolio analysis of individual technology’s prospects in view of the new regulatory framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5301-5313.
    4. Andreas Ferrara and Ian Lange, 2014. "Voluntary Programs to Encourage Diffusion: The Case of the Combined Heat-and-Power Partnership," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    5. Bonilla, David, 2007. "Fuel Price Changes and the Adoption of Cogeneration in the U.K. and Netherlands," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 59-71.
    6. Rui Baptista, 1999. "The Diffusion of Process Innovations: A Selective Review," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 107-129.
    7. Reinhard Madlener & Christiane Schmid, 2003. "Adoption and Diffusion of Decentralised Energy Conversion Technologies: The Success of Engine Co-Generation in Germany," Energy & Environment, , vol. 14(5), pages 627-662, September.
    8. Qiangbing Chen & Yali Liu, 2011. "The Diffusion of a Process Innovation with Gently Declining Production Cost," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 109-129, June.
    9. Chung, Mo & Park, Chuhwan & Lee, Sukgyu & Park, Hwa-Choon & Im, Yong-Hoon & Chang, Youngho, 2012. "A decision support assessment of cogeneration plant for a community energy system in Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 365-383.
    10. Sarkar, Jayati, 1998. "Technological Diffusion: Alternative Theories and Historical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 131-176, April.
    11. Battisti, Giuliana & Stoneman, Paul, 2005. "The intra-firm diffusion of new process technologies," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 1-22, February.
    12. David Popp, 2006. "Exploring Links Between Innovation and Diffusion: Adoption of NOx Control Technologies at U.S. Coal-Fired Power Plants," NBER Working Papers 12119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Stoneman, Paul, 2011. "Soft Innovation: Economics, Product Aesthetics, and the Creative Industries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199697021.
    14. Koellinger, Ph.D. & Schade, C., 2010. "The Influence of Installed Technologies on Future Adoption Decisions: Empirical Evidence from E-Business," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2010-012-ORG, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    15. Eleonora Bartoloni & Maurizio Baussola, 2015. "Persistent Product Innovation and Market-oriented Behaviour: the Impact on Firms' Performance," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali dises1505, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    16. Fuentelsaz, Lucio & Gómez, Jaime & Palomas, Sergio, 2016. "Interdependences in the intrafirm diffusion of technological innovations: Confronting the rational and social accounts of diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 951-963.
    17. Saba Firdousi, 2016. "Technology in the Sialkot Gloves Manufacturing Sector," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 21(Special E), pages 253-272, September.
    18. Eleonora Bartoloni & Maurizio Baussola, 2001. "The Determinants of Technology Adoption in Italian Manufacturing Industries," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 19(3), pages 305-328, November.
    19. Koundouri, Phoebe & Nauges, Céline & Tzouvelekas, Vangelis, 2009. "The Effect of Production Uncertainty and Information Dissemination of the Diffusion of Irrigation Technologies," TSE Working Papers 09-032, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    20. Marra, Michele & Pannell, David J. & Abadi Ghadim, Amir, 2003. "The economics of risk, uncertainty and learning in the adoption of new agricultural technologies: where are we on the learning curve?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 75(2-3), pages 215-234.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cogeneration; CHP; Technology adoption; Technical change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L21 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Business Objectives of the Firm
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cee:wpcepe:03-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Carlos Ordas (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepetch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.