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Optimal Technology Choice and Investment Timing: A Stochastic Model of Industrial Cogeneration vs. Heat-Only Production

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Author Info

  • Reinhard Madlener

    ()
    (Center for Energy Policy and Economics CEPE, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Marcel Wickart

    ()
    (Center for Energy Policy and Economics CEPE, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract

In this paper we develop an economic model that explains the decision-making problem under uncertainty of an industrial firm that wants to invest in a process technology. More specifically, the decision is between making an irreversible investment in a combined heat-and-power production (cogeneration) system, or to invest in a conventional heat-only generation system (steam boiler) and to purchase all electricity from the grid. In our model we include the main economic and technical variables of the investment decision process. We also account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in volatile energy prices that can greatly affect the valuation of the investment project. The dynamic stochastic model presented allows us to simultaneously determine the optimal technology choice and investment timing. We apply the theoretical model and illustrate our main findings with a numerical example that is based on realistic cost values for industrial oil- or gas-fired cogeneration and heat-only generation in Switzerland. We also briefly discuss expected effects of a CO2 tax on the investment decision.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich in its series CEPE Working paper series with number 04-37.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cee:wpcepe:04-37

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Keywords: Cogeneration; Irreversible investment; Risk; Uncertainty; Real options;

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References

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  1. Nasakkala, Erkka & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2005. "Flexibility and technology choice in gas fired power plant investments," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 371-393.
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  3. Dobbs, Ian M., 1982. "Combined heat and power economics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 276-285, October.
  4. Bonilla, David & Akisawa, Atsushi & Kashiwagi, Takao, 2003. "Modelling the adoption of industrial cogeneration in Japan using manufacturing plant survey data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 895-910, July.
  5. Peter Zweifel & Konstantin Beck, 1987. "Utilities and Cogeneration: Some Regulatory Problems," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-15.
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  7. Anandalingam, G., 1985. "Government policy and industrial investment in cogeneration in the USA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 117-126, April.
  8. McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-49, June.
  9. Paul L. Joskow & Donald R. Jones, 1983. "The Simple Economics of Industrial Cogeneration," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-22.
  10. Keppo, Jussi & Lu, Hao, 2003. "Real options and a large producer: the case of electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 459-472, September.
  11. Dismukes, David E. & Kleit, Andrew N., 1999. "Cogeneration and electric power industry restructuring," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 153-166, May.
  12. Kwon, Oh Sang & Yun, Won-Cheol, 2003. "Measuring economies of scope for cogeneration systems in Korea: a nonparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 331-338, July.
  13. Fox-Penner, Peter S., 1990. "Regulating independent power producers : Lessons of the PURPA approach," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 117-141, April.
  14. Frayer, Julia & Uludere, Nazli Z., 2001. "What Is It Worth? Application of Real Options Theory to the Valuation of Generation Assets," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(8), pages 40-51, October.
  15. Chi-Keung Woo, 1988. "Inefficiency of Avoided Cost Pricing of Cogenerated Power," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 103-113.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Wittmann, Nadine & Yildiz, Özgür, 2013. "A microeconomic analysis of decentralized small scale biomass based CHP plants—The case of Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 123-129.
  2. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Maribu, Karl, 2009. "Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 25-37, January.
  3. Himpler, Sebastian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Repowering of Wind Turbines: Economics and Optimal Timing," FCN Working Papers 19/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  4. Silvia Banfi & Massimo Filippini & Andrea Horehájová, 2007. "Hedonic Price Functions for Zurich and Lugano with Special Focus on Electrosmog," CEPE Working paper series 07-57, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
  5. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Investment in New Power Generation under Uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs Condensing Plants in a Copula-Based Analysis," FCN Working Papers 12/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  6. Silvia Banfi & Massimo Filippini & Andrea Horeh�jov�, 2012. "Using a choice experiment to estimate the benefits of a reduction of externalities in urban areas with special focus on electrosmog," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 387-397, January.
  7. William E., Lilley & Luke J., Reedman & Liam D., Wagner & Colin F., Alie & Anthony R., Szatow, 2012. "An economic evaluation of the potential for distributed energy in Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 277-289.
  8. Svensson, Elin & Berntsson, Thore & Strömberg, Ann-Brith & Patriksson, Michael, 2009. "An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 680-685, February.
  9. Somayeh Heydari & Nick Ovenden & Afzal Siddiqui, 2012. "Real options analysis of investment in carbon capture and sequestration technology," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 109-138, February.
  10. Greening, Lorna A. & Boyd, Gale & Roop, Joseph M., 2007. "Modeling of industrial energy consumption: An introduction and context," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 599-608, July.

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