Gas Fired Power Plants: Investment Timing, Operating Flexibility and Abandonment
AbstractWe analyze investments in gas fired power plants under stochastic electricity and gas prices. We use a real options approach, taking into account the economic information in futures and forward prices. A simple but realistic two-factor model is used for price process, enabling analysis of the value of operating flexibility, the opportunity to sell and abandon the capital equipment, as well as finding thresholds for energy prices for which it is optimal to enter into the investment. Our case study, using real data, indicates that when the decision to build is considered, the plant’s flexibility and abandonment option do not have significant value.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0404010.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 21 Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 29
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://18.104.22.168
Real options; spark spread; gas fired power plant; forward prices;
Other versions of this item:
- Fleten, Stein-Erik & Näsäkkälä, Erkka, 2003. "Gas fired power plants: Investment timing, operating flexibility and abandonment," MPRA Paper 217, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2006.
- G - Financial Economics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-04-25 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1997. " The Stochastic Behavior of Commodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 923-73, July.
- Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Maribu, Karl, 2009. "Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 25-37, January.
- Nasakkala, Erkka & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2005.
"Flexibility and technology choice in gas fired power plant investments,"
Review of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 371-393.
- Erkka Näsäkkälä & Stein- Erik Fleten, 2004. "Flexibility and Technology Choice in Gas Fired Power Plant Investments," Others 0405004, EconWPA, revised 06 Apr 2006.
- Saman Majd & Robert S. Pindyck, 1987.
"Time to Build, Option Value, and Investment Decisions,"
NBER Working Papers
1654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Majd, Saman & Pindyck, Robert S., 1987. "Time to build, option value, and investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 7-27, March.
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
- McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
- Chamorro Gómez, José Manuel & Abadie, Luis M., 2005.
"Valuing Flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Power Plant,"
2005-21, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico I.
- Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2008. "Valuing flexibility: The case of an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle power plant," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1850-1881, July.
- Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.