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Youth unemployment rate and impact of financial crises

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Author Info

  • Misbah Tanveer Choudhry
  • Enrico Marelli
  • Marcello Signorelli

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of financial crises on the youth unemployment rate (YUR). The authors consider different types of financial crises (systemic banking crises, non-systemic banking crises, currency crises and debt crises) and different groups of countries, according to their income level. Design/methodology/approach – After a review of the existing (theoretical and empirical) literature on the determinants of the YUR in general and at the occurrence of economic crises, the authors present empirical estimations on the impact of past financial crises on young workers. The relationship between financial crises and YUR is investigated by employing fixed effects panel estimation on a large panel of countries (about 70) around the world for the period 1980-2005. The “persistence” over time of the impact is also investigated. Finally the Arellano-Bond dynamic panel is estimated, confirming the significance of the results. Findings – According to the authors’ empirical estimates, two key results are relevant: financial crises have an impact on the YUR that goes beyond the impact resulting from GDP changes; and the effect on the YUR is greater than the effect on overall unemployment. The inclusion of many control variables – including in particular GDP growth – does not change the sign and significance of the key explanatory variable. The results suggest that financial crises affect the YUR for five years after the onset of the crises; however, the most adverse effects are found in the second and third year after the financial crisis. Research limitations/implications – Although fully aware of the peculiarities of the last crisis, the authors believe that the econometric results facilitate a better understanding of the impact of the 2007-2008 financial crisis on the youth labour market. Practical implications – The main policy implication is that effective active labour market policies and better school-to-work transition institutions are particularly needed to reduce the risk of persistence and structural (long-term) unemployment, since young people have been worst affected by the last crisis. Originality/value – There are many studies on the characteristics and causes of youth unemployment; considerable research has also been carried out into the labour market impact of financial crises. This paper brings the two strands of literature together, by econometrically investigating the impact of financial crises on YUR.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal International Journal of Manpower.

Volume (Year): 33 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 76-95

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Handle: RePEc:eme:ijmpps:v:33:y:2012:i:1:p:76-95

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Related research

Keywords: Arellano-Bond estimates; Econometrics; Economic depression; Financial crises; Labour impact of economic crises; Labour market; Panel fixed effects; Unemployment; Youth; Youth unemployment;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Persistence in Youth Unemployment," CESifo Working Paper Series 3961, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. John Anyanwu, 2014. "Working Paper 201 - Does Intra-African Trade Reduce Youth Unemployment in Africa ?," Working Paper Series 2107, African Development Bank.
  3. Carla Calero & Veronica Gonzales & Yuri Soares & Jochen Kluve & Carlos Henrique Corseuilt, 2014. "Can Arts-Based Interventions Enhance Labor Market Outcomes among Youth? Evidence from a Randomized Trial in Rio de Janeiro," Ruhr Economic Papers 0486, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  4. Cioca Ionela Cornelia, 2013. "Analysis Of Correlation Between The Unemployment Rate And Gross Domestic Product In The European Union," Polish Journal of Management Studies, Czestochowa Technical University, Department of Management, vol. 7(1), pages 71-78, June.
  5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Persistence in Youth Unemployment," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1248, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Artner, Annamária, 2013. "A fiatalok munkanélküliségének kérdéséhez Európa példáján keresztül
    [Contribution to the problem of the youth unemployment through the example of Europe]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1370-1392.
  7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2014. "Youth Unemployment in Europe: Persistence and Macroeconomic Determinants," CESifo Working Paper Series 4696, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Arnstein Aassve & Elena Cottini & Agnese Vitali, 2013. "Youth Vulnerability in Europe during the Great Recession," Working Papers 057, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
  9. Escudero, Verónica & López Mourelo, Elva, 2013. "Understanding the drivers of the youth labour market in Kenya," ILO Working Papers 485514, International Labour Organization.
  10. Giovanni S.F. Bruno & Misbah T. Choudhry & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2014. "Youth Unemployment: Key Determinants and the Impact of Crisis," AIEL Series in Labour Economics, in: Dario Sciulli & Miguel Ángel Malo (ed.), Disadvantaged Workers, edition 1, chapter 7, pages 121-148 AIEL - Associazione Italiana Economisti del Lavoro.
  11. O'Higgins, Niall, 2012. "This Time It's Different? Youth Labour Markets During 'The Great Recession'," IZA Discussion Papers 6434, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Josef C Brada & Marcello Signorelli, 2012. "Comparing Labor Market Performance: Some Stylized Facts and Key Findings," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 231-250, June.
  13. Enrico Marelli & Giovanni Bruno & Marcello Signorelli, 2013. "Young People in Crisis: NEETs and Unemployed in EU Regions," ERSA conference papers ersa13p895, European Regional Science Association.

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