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Youth Unemployment in Europe: Persistence and Macroeconomic Determinants

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

Abstract

This paper investigates the statistical features and the macroeconomic determinants of youth unemployment in a number of European countries. First, it explores its short and long memory properties by estimating both autoregressive and fractional integration models. This type of analysis sheds light on the degree of persistence of the series, and on whether policy actions are required for highly persistent series. Second, it investigates the main determinants of youth unemployment in Europe by estimating fractional cointegration models. The evidence suggests that this series is highly persistent in all the countries examined, and that in some of them there is a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship linking it to macroeconomic variables such as GDP and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2014. "Youth Unemployment in Europe: Persistence and Macroeconomic Determinants," CESifo Working Paper Series 4696, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4696
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    Cited by:

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    2. Iryna Lukianenko & Marianna Oliskevych, 2017. "Evidence of Asymmetries and Nonlinearity of Unemployment and Labour Force Participation Rate in Ukraine," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(5), pages 578-601.
    3. Mihaela Simionescu & Javier Cifuentes-Faura, 2022. "Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1187-1216, December.
    4. repec:thr:techub:10035:y:2022:i:1:p:532-540 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Giovanni S. F. Bruno & Misbah Choudhry Tanveer & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2017. "The short- and long-run impacts of financial crises on youth unemployment in OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(34), pages 3372-3394, July.
    6. Urbánné Mező, Júlia & Udvari, Beáta, 2016. "Munkapiaci rugalmasság és ifjúsági foglalkoztathatóság [Labour-market flexibility and youth employment]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 431-460.
    7. Bajram Ibraj, 2016. "Money Laundering in Albania for the Years 2008-2015," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 2, September.
    8. Riza Bayrak, Halim Tatli, 2018. "The Determinants of Youth Unemployment: A Panel Data Analysis of OECD Countries," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 15(2), pages 231-248, December.
    9. Maria Laura Parisi & Enrico Marelli & Olga Demidova, 2015. "Labour Productivity of Young and Adult Temporary Workers and Youth Unemployment: a Cross-country Analysis," Discussion Papers 1_2015, CRISEI, University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    10. Iva Tomic, 2016. "What drives youth unemployment in Europe?," Working Papers 1601, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
    11. Tamar Pkhakadze, 2022. "Youth unemployment in the European Union and transition period - from education to the labour market," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 35(1), pages 532-540, September.
    12. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Javier Ordóñez & Karsten Staehr, 2019. "Unit labour costs and the dynamics of output and unemployment in the southern European crisis countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 597-616, August.
    13. Floro Ernesto Caroleo & Elvira Ciociano & Sergio Destefanis, 2017. "The role of the education systems and the labour market institutions in enhancing youth employment: a cross-country analysis," Discussion Papers 1_2017, CRISEI, University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    14. Floro Ernesto Caroleo & Elvira Ciociano & Sergio Destefanis, 2017. "Youth Labour-Market Performance, Institutions and Vet Systems: A Cross-Country Analysis," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 3(1), pages 39-69, March.
    15. repec:ces:ifofor:v:18:y:2017:i:2:p:19-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Wen-Yi Chen & Tsangyao Chang & Yu-Hui Lin, 2018. "Investigating the Persistence of Suicide in the United States: Evidence from the Quantile Unit Root Test," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 813-833, January.
    17. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:633:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:thr:techub:10034:y:2022:i:1:p:521-528 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Tamar Pkhakadze, 2022. "Improving Youth Unemployment Issues and Further Development of Youth Policies in the European Union member states," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 34(1), pages 521-528, August.
    20. SÁNTA Ádám Kálmán & KOZMÁNÉ CSIRMAZ Éva, 2020. "Employment-Related Habits Among Students Majoring In Tourism At The University Of Debrecen," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 109-121, July.
    21. Iva TOMIĆ, 2018. "What drives youth unemployment in Europe? Economic vs non‐economic determinants," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 157(3), pages 379-408, September.
    22. Alexander McTier & Alan McGregor, 2018. "Influence of Work–Welfare Cycling and Labour Market Segmentation on Employment Histories of Young Long-Term Unemployed," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 32(1), pages 20-37, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    youth unemployment; fractional integration; fractional cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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