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The zero lower bound and estimation accuracy

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  • Atkinson, Tyler
  • Richter, Alexander W.
  • Throckmorton, Nathaniel A.

Abstract

During the Great Recession, central banks lowered their policy rate to the zero lower bound (ZLB), calling into question linear estimation methods. There are two alternatives: estimate a nonlinear model that accounts for precautionary savings effects of the ZLB or a piecewise linear model that is faster but ignores the precautionary savings effects. This paper compares their accuracy using artificial datasets. The predictions of the nonlinear model are typically more accurate than the piecewise linear model, but the differences are usually small. There are far larger gains in accuracy from estimating a richer, less misspecified piecewise linear model.

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  • Atkinson, Tyler & Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2020. "The zero lower bound and estimation accuracy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 249-264.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:115:y:2020:i:c:p:249-264
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.06.007
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    6. Daisuke Ikeda & Shangshang Li & Sophocles Mavroeidis & Francesco Zanetti, 2020. "Testing the Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy in Japan and the United States," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    7. Eric Jondeau & Gregory Levieuge & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Gauthier Vermandel, 2022. "Environmental Subsidies to Mitigate Transition Risk," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 22-45, Swiss Finance Institute.
    8. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2022. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1637-1671, September.
    9. Pablo Cuba‐Borda & Luca Guerrieri & Matteo Iacoviello & Molin Zhong, 2019. "Likelihood evaluation of models with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 1073-1085, November.
    10. Ivashchenko, Sergey & Mutschler, Willi, 2020. "The effect of observables, functional specifications, model features and shocks on identification in linearized DSGE models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 280-292.
    11. Boehl, Gregor, 2022. "Efficient solution and computation of models with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    12. S. Bogan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Kenji Higa-Flores & Frank Schorfheide & Sergio Villalvazo, 2021. "Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 96-120, July.
    13. Zhou, Jing, 2022. "Collateral quality and house prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    14. Böhl, Gregor & Strobel, Felix, 2020. "US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound," IMFS Working Paper Series 143, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    15. Damioli, Giacomo & Gregori, Wildmer Daniel, 2021. "Diplomatic relations and cross-border investments in the European Union," Working Papers 2021-02, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    16. Daisuke Ida & Hirokuni Iiboshi, 2021. "The interaction of forward guidance in a two-country new Keynesian model," Papers 2103.12503, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    17. Higgins, C. Richard, 2023. "Risk and Uncertainty: The Role of Financial Frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    18. Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2020. "The Role of Nonlinearity in Indeterminate Models: An Application to Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2020-023, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    19. Giovannini, Massimo & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco, 2021. "Efficient and robust inference of models with occasionally binding constraints," Working Papers 2021-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    20. Calo, Silvia & Gregori, Wildmer Daniel & Petracco Giudici, Marco & Rancan, Michela, 2021. "Has the Comprehensive Assessment made the European financial system more resilient?," Working Papers 2021-08, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian estimation; Projection methods; Particle filter; Occbin; Inversion filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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