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Yield curve in an estimated nonlinear macro model

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  • Taeyoung Doh

Abstract

What moves the yield curve? This paper specifies and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model solved using a second order approximation to equilibrium conditions to answer this question. From the empirical analysis of U.S. data from 1983:Q1 to 2007:Q4, I find that the monetary policy response to the inflation gap defined by the difference between expected inflation and the inflation target of the central bank is a key channel transmitting macro shocks to the yield curve and that the degree of nominal rigidity determines which macro shocks are more important determinants of the yield curve. With the low degree of nominal rigidity, the inflation target of the central bank drives persistent movements of inflation and the yield curve while fluctuations of markups do so with the high degree of nominal rigidity. Although the estimated linear model puts nearly zero probability on the low degree of nominal rigidity, there is a positive probability mass in the nonlinear model. The analysis in this paper suggests caution on interpreting estimation results in which nonlinear terms of the DSGE model solution are ignored.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number RWP 09-04.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp09-04

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  1. Jes�s Fern�ndez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ram�rez, 2007. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 1059-1087.
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Cited by:
  1. Oreste Tristani & Gianni Amisano, 2010. "A nonlinear DSGE model of the term structure with regime shifts," 2010 Meeting Papers 234, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan, 2012. "The term structure of interest rates in a DSGE model with recursive preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 634-648.
  3. Hall, Jamie, 2012. "Consumption dynamics in general equilibrium," MPRA Paper 43933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Challe, Edouard & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2014. "Stock prices and monetary policy shocks: A general equilibrium approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 46-66.
  5. Den Haan, Wouter J. & De Wind, Joris, 2012. "Nonlinear and stable perturbation-based approximations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1477-1497.
  6. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S111-S126, October.
  7. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro-Finance Models Of Interest Rates And The Economy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 25-52, 09.
  8. Andreasen, Martin M., 2011. "Non-linear DSGE models and the optimized central difference particle filter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1671-1695, October.
  9. Tanaka Hiroatsu, 2012. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Term Structure of Interests Rates with Recursive Utility," 2012 Meeting Papers 557, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Refet S. G�rkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 331-67, June.

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