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Yield curve in an estimated nonlinear macro model

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  • Doh, Taeyoung

Abstract

This paper estimates a sticky price macro model with US macro and term structure data using Bayesian methods. The model is solved by a nonlinear method. The posterior distribution of the parameters in the model is found to be bi-modal. The degree of nominal rigidity is high at one mode ("sticky price mode") but is low at the other mode ("flexible price mode"). I find that the degree of nominal rigidity is important for identifying macro shocks that affect the yield curve. When prices are more flexible, a slowly varying inflation target of the central bank is the main driver of the overall level of the yield curve by changing long-run inflation expectations. In contrast, when prices are more sticky, a highly persistent markup shock is the main driver. The posterior probability of each mode is sensitive to the use of observed proxies for inflation expectations. Ignoring additional information from survey data on inflation expectations significantly reduces the posterior probability of the flexible price mode. Incorporating this additional information suggests that yield curve fluctuations can be better understood by focusing on the flexible price mode. Considering nonlinearities of the model solution also increases the posterior probability of the flexible price mode, although to a lesser degree than using survey data information.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 8 (August)
Pages: 1229-1244

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:8:p:1229-1244

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Bayesian econometrics DSGE model Term structure of interest rates;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Koijen, Ralph & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & van Binsbergen, Jules H., 2010. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model with Recursive Preferences," CEPR Discussion Papers 7781, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Challe, Edouard & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2011. "Stock Prices and Monetary Policy Shocks: A General Equilibrium Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 8387, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro-finance models of interest rates and the economy," Working Paper Series 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Den Haan, Wouter J. & De Wind, Joris, 2012. "Nonlinear and stable perturbation-based approximations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1477-1497.
  5. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Wright, Jonathan, 2010. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Tanaka Hiroatsu, 2012. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Term Structure of Interests Rates with Recursive Utility," 2012 Meeting Papers 557, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Andreasen, Martin M., 2011. "Non-linear DSGE models and the optimized central difference particle filter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1671-1695, October.
  8. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Working Paper Series 2007-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. Hall, Jamie, 2012. "Consumption dynamics in general equilibrium," MPRA Paper 43933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Oreste Tristani & Gianni Amisano, 2010. "A nonlinear DSGE model of the term structure with regime shifts," 2010 Meeting Papers 234, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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