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Yield curve in an estimated nonlinear macro model

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  • Doh, Taeyoung

Abstract

This paper estimates a sticky price macro model with US macro and term structure data using Bayesian methods. The model is solved by a nonlinear method. The posterior distribution of the parameters in the model is found to be bi-modal. The degree of nominal rigidity is high at one mode ("sticky price mode") but is low at the other mode ("flexible price mode"). I find that the degree of nominal rigidity is important for identifying macro shocks that affect the yield curve. When prices are more flexible, a slowly varying inflation target of the central bank is the main driver of the overall level of the yield curve by changing long-run inflation expectations. In contrast, when prices are more sticky, a highly persistent markup shock is the main driver. The posterior probability of each mode is sensitive to the use of observed proxies for inflation expectations. Ignoring additional information from survey data on inflation expectations significantly reduces the posterior probability of the flexible price mode. Incorporating this additional information suggests that yield curve fluctuations can be better understood by focusing on the flexible price mode. Considering nonlinearities of the model solution also increases the posterior probability of the flexible price mode, although to a lesser degree than using survey data information.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 8 (August)
Pages: 1229-1244

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:8:p:1229-1244

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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Keywords: Bayesian econometrics DSGE model Term structure of interest rates;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Oreste Tristani & Gianni Amisano, 2010. "A nonlinear DSGE model of the term structure with regime shifts," 2010 Meeting Papers 234, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Wright, Jonathan, 2010. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Andreasen, Martin M., 2011. "Non-linear DSGE models and the optimized central difference particle filter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1671-1695, October.
  4. Edouard Challe & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2012. "Stock Prices And Monetary Policy Shocks: A General Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers hal-00719956, HAL.
  5. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan, 2012. "The term structure of interest rates in a DSGE model with recursive preferences," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 634-648.
  6. Den Haan, Wouter J. & De Wind, Joris, 2012. "Nonlinear and stable perturbation-based approximations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1477-1497.
  7. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Macro-finance models of interest rates and the economy," Working Paper Series 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Sergey Ivashchenko, 2014. "Forecasting In a Non-Linear DSGE Model," EUSP Deparment of Economics Working Paper Series Ec-02/14, European University at St. Petersburg, Department of Economics.
  9. Hall, Jamie, 2012. "Consumption dynamics in general equilibrium," MPRA Paper 43933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages S111-S126, October.
  11. Tanaka Hiroatsu, 2012. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Term Structure of Interests Rates with Recursive Utility," 2012 Meeting Papers 557, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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