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Euro area inflation persistence in an estimated nonlinear

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  • Gianni Amisano

    (University of Brescia)

  • Oreste Tristani

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

We estimate the approximate nonlinear solution of a small DSGE model using Bayesian methods. Our results, based on euro area data, suggest that this approch delivers sharper inference compared to the estimation of the linearised solution. The nonlinear model can also account for richer economic dynamics. The impulse responses of inflation to structural shocks may vary depending on initial conditions: they are much more persistent when inflation is significantly above its long run equilibrium level

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 347.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:347

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Keywords: DSGE models; policy rules; inflation persistence; second order approximations;

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References

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  1. Canova, Fabio & Sala, Luca, 2009. "Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 431-449, May.
  2. Peter Hoerdahl & Oreste Tristani, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 379, Econometric Society.
  3. Sutherland, Alan, 2002. "A Simple Second-Order Solution Method For Dynamic General Equilibrium Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3554, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. An, Sungbae & Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5207, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2004. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Research 61, National Bank of Belgium.
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  7. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Solving Dynamic General Equilibrium Models Using a Second-Order Approximation to the Policy Function," Departmental Working Papers 200106, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  8. Paul Gomme & Paul Klein, 2009. "Second-order approximation of dynamic models without the use of tensors," Working Papers 09004, Concordia University, Department of Economics, revised 28 Apr 2010.
  9. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez & Manuel Santos, 2004. "Convergence properties of the likelihood of computed dynamic models," Working Paper 2004-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  10. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  12. S. B. Aruoba & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2005. "Comparing Solution Methods for Dynamic Equilibrium Economies," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000855, UCLA Department of Economics.
  13. Jinill Kim & Sunghyun Kim & Ernst Schaumburg & Christopher A. Sims, 2003. "Calculating and Using Second Order Accurate Solutions of Discrete Time," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000284, UCLA Department of Economics.
  14. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Ascari, Guido, 2003. "Staggered prices and trend inflation: some nuisances," Research Discussion Papers 27/2003, Bank of Finland.
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  17. Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Learning and monetary policy shifts," Working Paper 2003-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  18. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0171, European Central Bank.
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  20. Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2003. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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Cited by:
  1. Neil Shephard & Thomas Flury, 2008. "Bayesian inference based only on simulated likelihood: particle filter analysis of dynamic economic models," Economics Series Working Papers 413, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2006. "The Research Agenda: Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez on Estimating DSGE Models," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), November.

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