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Euro area inflation persistence in an estimated nonlinear

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Author Info
Gianni Amisano (University of Brescia)
Oreste Tristani (European Central Bank)

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Abstract

We estimate the approximate nonlinear solution of a small DSGE model using Bayesian methods. Our results, based on euro area data, suggest that this approch delivers sharper inference compared to the estimation of the linearised solution. The nonlinear model can also account for richer economic dynamics. The impulse responses of inflation to structural shocks may vary depending on initial conditions: they are much more persistent when inflation is significantly above its long run equilibrium level

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 347.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:347

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Related research
Keywords: DSGE models; policy rules; inflation persistence; second order approximations;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Christopher A. Sims & Jinill Kim & Sunghyun Kim, 2003. "Calculating and Using Second Order Accurate Solution of Discrete Time Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 162, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. S. Boragan Aruoba & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramirez, 2003. "Comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies," Working Paper 2003-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2005. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 927, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2003. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  5. Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 48, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Alan Sutherland, 2002. "A Simple Second-Order Solution Method for Dynamic General Equilibrium Models," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 0211, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jerome & Mestre, Ricardo, 2005. "An area-wide model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-59, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Raf Wouters & Frank Smets, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Guido Ascari, 2004. "Staggered prices and trend inflation: some nuisances," Macroeconomics 0404029, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio & Manuel Santos, 2005. "Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. An, Sungbae & Schorfheide, Frank, 2005. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5207, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 171, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thomas Flury & Neil Shephard, 2008. "Bayesian inference based only on simulated likelihood: particle filter analysis of dynamic economic models," Economics Series Working Papers 413, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jukka Jalava & Ilja Kristian Kavonius, 2007. "Durable goods and their effect on household saving rations in the euro area," Working Paper Series 755, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2006. "The Research Agenda: Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez on Estimating DSGE Models," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), November. [Downloadable!]
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