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Euro area inflation persistence in an estimated nonlinear DSGE model

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Author Info
Gianni Amisano
Oreste Tristani

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Abstract

We estimate the approximate nonlinear solution of a small DSGE model on euro area data, using the conditional particle filter to compute the model likelihood. Our results are consistent with previous findings, based on simulated data, suggesting that this approach delivers sharper inference compared to the estimation of the linearised model. We also show that the nonlinear model can account for richer economic dynamics: the impulse responses to structural shocks vary depending on initial conditions selected within our estimation sample.

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Paper provided by University of Brescia, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0704.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ubs:wpaper:0704

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2006. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," NBER Technical Working Papers 0321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Sandrine Corvoisier & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Breaks in the mean of inflation - how they happen and what to do with them," Working Paper Series 451, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "Bayesian analysis of DSGE models," Working Papers 06-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2005. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 927, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Raf Wouters & Frank Smets, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Roberto Casarin & Carmine Trecroci, 2006. "Business Cycle and Stock Market Volatility: A Particle Filter Approach," Working Papers ubs0603, University of Brescia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Guido Ascari, 2004. "Staggered prices and trend inflation: some nuisances," Macroeconomics 0404029, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Paper Series 334, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2005. "Inflation Stabilization And Welfare: The Case Of A Distorted Steady State," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1185-1236, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Solving dynamic general equilibrium models using a second-order approximation to the policy function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 755-775, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Manuel S. Santos, 2006. "Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 93-119, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Gabriel Fagan & Jérôme Henry & Ricardo Mestre, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  23. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Manuel Santos, 2005. "Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000822, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, and Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
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  26. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marco Lombardi & Silvia Sgherri, 2007. "(Un)naturally Low? Sequential Monte Carlo Tracking of the US Natural Interest Rate," DNB Working Papers 142, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jukka Jalava & Ilja Kristian Kavonius, 2007. "Durable goods and their effect on household saving rations in the euro area," Working Paper Series 755, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Viktor Winschel & Markus Krätzig, 2008. "Solving, Estimating and Selecting Nonlinear Dynamic Models without the Curse of Dimensionality," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-018, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Guido Wolswijk, 2007. "Short- and long-run tax elasticities - the case of the Netherlands," Working Paper Series 763, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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