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Jumps, cojumps, and efficiency in the spot foreign exchange market

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  • Piccotti, Louis R.

Abstract

I identify intraday jumps and cojumps in exchange rates controlling for volatility patterns and relate these events to pre-scheduled macroeconomic news and market conditions. Event study results show that preceding jump and cojump events, exchange rate quote volume, illiquidity, signed order flow, and informed trades are at heightened levels revealing that jump events are consistent with rational dealer quoting behavior. Following jump and cojump events, quote volume and return variance remain at heightened levels while illiquidity, informed trade, and signed order flow remain at depressed levels providing evidence that order flow following jump events is largely uninformed liquidity provision.

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  • Piccotti, Louis R., 2018. "Jumps, cojumps, and efficiency in the spot foreign exchange market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 49-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:49-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.09.007
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    3. Sevcan Uzun & Ahmet Sensoy & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2023. "Jump forecasting in foreign exchange markets: A high‐frequency analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 578-624, April.
    4. Serdengeçti, Süleyman & Sensoy, Ahmet & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2021. "Dynamics of return and liquidity (co) jumps in emerging foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Liu, Wenwen & Zhang, Chang & Qiao, Gaoxiu & Xu, Lei, 2022. "Impact of network investor sentiment and news arrival on jumps," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Konstantinos Gkillas & Dimitrios Vortelinos & Christos Floros & Alexandros Garefalakis & Nikolaos Sariannidis, 2020. "Greek sovereign crisis and European exchange rates: effects of news releases and their providers," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 294(1), pages 515-536, November.
    7. Sensoy, Ahmet & Serdengeçti, Süleyman, 2020. "Impact of portfolio flows and heterogeneous expectations on FX jumps: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Gaoxiu Qiao & Yangli Cao & Feng Ma & Weiping Li, 2023. "Liquidity and realized covariance forecasting: a hybrid method with model uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 437-463, January.
    9. Yuewen Xiao & Xiangkang Yin & Jing Zhao, 2020. "Jumps, News, And Subsequent Return Dynamics: An Intraday Study," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 705-731, August.
    10. Lee, Suzanne S. & Wang, Minho, 2020. "Tales of tails: Jumps in currency markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    11. Liu, Mengxi (Maggie) & Chan, Kam Fong & Faff, Robert, 2022. "What can we learn from firm-level jump-induced tail risk around earnings announcements?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Revisiting the weak-form efficiency of the EUR/CHF exchange rate market: Evidence from episodes of different Swiss franc regimes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 734-746.

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