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Volatility in the Foreign Currency Futures Market

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Author Info
Harvey, Campbell R
Huang, Roger D

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Abstract

We examine the volatility implications of around-the-clock foreign exchange trading with transaction data on futures contracts from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the London International Financial Futures Exchange. We find higher U.S.-European and U.S.-Japanese exchange-rate volatilities during U.S. trading hours and higher European cross-rate volatilities during European trading hours. While the diclosure of private information through trading may partly explain these volatility patterns, we conclude that the increased volatility is more likely driven by macroeconomic news announcements. An analysis of inter- and intraday data also reveals that volatility increases at times that coincide with the release of U.S. macroeconomic news. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 4 (1991)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 543-69
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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:4:y:1991:i:3:p:543-69

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  1. Ganapolsky, Eduardo J. J. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1998. "The impact of policy announcements and news on capital markets : crisis management in Argentina during the Tequila Effect," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1951, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Nikolaus Hautsch & Dieter Hess, 2002. "The processing of non-anticipated information in financial markets: Analyzing the impact of surprises in the employment report," CoFE Discussion Paper 02-06, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  3. Harvey, Campbell R. & Huang, Roger D., 2002. "The impact of the Federal Reserve Bank's open market operations," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 223-257, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Neil, Beattie & Fillion, Jean-François, 1999. "An Intraday Analysis of the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention," Working Papers 99-4, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Albert J. Menkveld & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2003. "Round-the-Clock Price Discovery for Cross-Listed Stocks: US-Dutch Evidence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-037/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Oct 2003. [Downloadable!]
  6. Magnus Dahlquist, Peter Sellin, 1996. "Stochastic dominance, tax-loss selling and seasonalities in Sweden," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Michael P. Clements & Nick Taylor, 2003. "Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 445-456. [Downloadable!]
  8. Li Li & Robert F. Engle, 1998. "Macroeconomic Announcements and Volatility of Treasury Futures," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 98-27, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Exchange rates and fundamentals - new evidence from real-time data," Working Paper Series 365, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Chun Lee & Ike Mathur & Kimberly Gleason, 2005. "The tick/volatility ratio as a determinant of the compass rose pattern," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 93-109, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. M. D. Mckenzie & R. D. Brooks, 2003. "The role of information in Hong Kong individual stock futures trading," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 123-131, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Strawinski, Pawel & Slepaczuk, Robert, 2008. "Analysis of HF data on the WSE in the context of EMH," MPRA Paper 9532, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Terry Boulter & Celeste Ping Fern Tan, 2000. "The Short Run Impact of Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements on the Australian Dollar during 1998," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 082, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  14. Gordon Tang, 1998. "Weekly Pattern of Exchange Rate Risks: Evidence from Ten Asian-Pacific Currencies," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 261-274, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Torben G. Anderson & Tim Bollerslev & Ashish Das, 1998. "Testing for Market Microstructure Effects in Intraday Volatility: A Reassessment of the Tokyo FX Experiment," NBER Working Papers 6666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Rita Madarassy Akin, 2003. "Maturity Effects in Futures Markets: Evidence from Eleven Financial Futures Markets," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1006, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
  17. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1996. "Time-Varying Risk Premia in the Foreign Currency Futures Basis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 281., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
  19. Martin Martens & Dick van Dijk & Michiel de Pooter, 2004. "Modeling and Forecasting S&P 500 Volatility: Long Memory, Structural Breaks and Nonlinearity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-067/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  20. Das, Sanjiv Ranjan & Uppal, Raman, 2002. "Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice," CEPR Discussion Papers 3305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Y.-F. Gau & M. Hau, 2004. "Public information, private information, inventory control, and volatility of intraday NTD/USD exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 263-266, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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