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The exchange rate, employment and hours: What firm-level data say

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  • Nucci, Francesco
  • Pozzolo, Alberto Franco

Abstract

Using a representative panel of manufacturing firms, we estimate the response of job and hours worked to currency swings, showing that it depends primarily on firms' exposure to foreign sales and their reliance on imported inputs. We also show that, for a given international exposure, the response to exchange rate fluctuations is magnified when firms exhibit a lower monopoly power and when they face foreign pressure in the domestic market through import penetration. The degree of substitutability between imported and other inputs and the distribution of workers by type introduce additional degrees of specificity in the employment sensitivity to exchange rate swings. Moreover, we show that episodes of entry and exit in the export market are associated with a heterogeneous employment response depending on the degree of external orientation when the switch of export status occurs.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 82 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (November)
Pages: 112-123

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:82:y:2010:i:2:p:112-123

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

Related research

Keywords: Employment Exchange rate Firms' foreign exposure;

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References

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  1. Andrew Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen Redding & Peter Schott, 2007. "Firms in International Trade," Working Papers 07-14, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  2. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
  3. Gianmarco Ottaviano & Thierry Mayer, . "The happy few: the internationalisation of European firms," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 12, October.
  4. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1999. "Employment versus Wage Adjustment and the U.S. Dollar," Working Papers 99-07, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  5. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  6. Revenga, Ana L, 1992. "Exporting Jobs? The Impact of Import Competition on Employment and Wages in U.S. Manufacturing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 255-84, February.
  7. Klein, Michael W. & Schuh, Scott & Triest, Robert K., 2003. "Job creation, job destruction, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 239-265, March.
  8. Nucci, Francesco & Pozzolo, Alberto F., 2001. "Investment and the exchange rate: An analysis with firm-level panel data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 259-283, February.
  9. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," NBER Working Papers 1769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Local Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 6985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  12. Simon Burgess & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "An International Comparison of Employment Adjustment to Exchange Rate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Bernard, A., 1997. "Exceptional Exporter Performance: Cause, Effect, or Both?," Working papers 97-21, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  14. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Jobs: What Do We Learn from Job Flows?," NBER Working Papers 6864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Michael W. Klein & Scott Schuh & Robert K. Triest, 2002. "Job creation, job destruction, and international competition: a literature review," Working Papers 02-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andrea Lassmann, 2013. "Exchange Rate Transmission and Export Activity at the Firm Level," KOF Working papers 13-331, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  2. Risheng Mao & John Whalley, 2011. "Ownership Characteristics, Real Exchange Rate Movements and Labor Market Adjustment in China," NBER Working Papers 17565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mai Dao & Ruo Chen, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate and Employment in China," IMF Working Papers 11/148, International Monetary Fund.
  4. A. Lo Turco & D. Maggioni & M. Picchio, 2012. "Offshoring and Job Stability: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/817, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  5. Murphy, Gavin & Siedschlag, Iulia, 2012. "The Effect of Real Exchange Rate Changes on Labour Productivity Growth," Papers WP439, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  6. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou, 2012. "Exchange rate risk in the US stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-150.

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