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The exchange rate, employment and hours: What firm-level data say

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  • Nucci, Francesco
  • Pozzolo, Alberto Franco

Abstract

Using a representative panel of manufacturing firms, we estimate the response of job and hours worked to currency swings, showing that it depends primarily on firms' exposure to foreign sales and their reliance on imported inputs. We also show that, for a given international exposure, the response to exchange rate fluctuations is magnified when firms exhibit a lower monopoly power and when they face foreign pressure in the domestic market through import penetration. The degree of substitutability between imported and other inputs and the distribution of workers by type introduce additional degrees of specificity in the employment sensitivity to exchange rate swings. Moreover, we show that episodes of entry and exit in the export market are associated with a heterogeneous employment response depending on the degree of external orientation when the switch of export status occurs.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 82 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (November)
Pages: 112-123

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:82:y:2010:i:2:p:112-123

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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Keywords: Employment Exchange rate Firms' foreign exposure;

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References

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  1. Mark J. Melitz, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," NBER Working Papers 8881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
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  4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Jobs: What Do We Learn from Job Flows?," NBER Working Papers 6864, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Klein, Michael W. & Schuh, Scott & Triest, Robert K., 2003. "Job creation, job destruction, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 239-265, March.
  6. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2001. "Employment Versus Wage Adjustment And The U.S. Dollar," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 477-489, August.
  7. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
  8. Jose Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1995. "Investment, Pass-Through and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison," NBER Working Papers 5139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Thierry Mayer & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2008. "The Happy Few: The Internationalisation of European Firms," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 135-148, May.
  10. Burgess, Simon M & Knetter, Michael M, 1998. "An International Comparison of Employment Adjustment to Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 151-63, February.
  11. Michael W. Klein & Scott Schuh & Robert K. Triest, 2002. "Job creation, job destruction, and international competition: a literature review," Working Papers 02-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  12. Revenga, Ana L, 1992. "Exporting Jobs? The Impact of Import Competition on Employment and Wages in U.S. Manufacturing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 255-84, February.
  13. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 1999. "Exchange rates and local labor markets," Staff Reports 63, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  14. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  15. Bernard, Andrew B. & Bradford Jensen, J., 1999. "Exceptional exporter performance: cause, effect, or both?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-25, February.
  16. Nucci, Francesco & Pozzolo, Alberto F., 2001. "Investment and the exchange rate: An analysis with firm-level panel data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 259-283, February.
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Cited by:
  1. A. Lo Turco & D. Maggioni & M. Picchio, 2012. "Offshoring and Job Stability: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/817, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  2. Risheng Mao & John Whalley, 2011. "Ownership Characteristics, Real Exchange Rate Movements and Labor Market Adjustment in China," NBER Working Papers 17565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou, 2012. "Exchange rate risk in the US stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-150.
  4. Mai Dao & Ruo Chen, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate and Employment in China," IMF Working Papers 11/148, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Murphy, Gavin & Siedschlag, Iulia, 2012. "The Effect of Real Exchange Rate Changes on Labour Productivity Growth," Papers WP439, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  6. Andrea Lassmann, 2013. "Exchange Rate Transmission and Export Activity at the Firm Level," KOF Working papers 13-331, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

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