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Investment, Pass-Through and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison

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  • Jose Campa
  • Linda S. Goldberg

Abstract

Although large changes in real exchange rates have occurred during the past decades, the real implications of these movements remain an empirical question. Using detailed data from the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Japan we examine the implications of exchange rates for time series of sectoral investment. Both theoretically and empirically we show that investment responsiveness to exchange rates varies over time, positively in relation to sectoral reliance on export share and negatively with respect to imported inputs into production. The quantitative importance of each of these channels of exposure is a function of a set of exchange rate pass-through and demand elasticities. There exist important differences in investment endogeneity across high and low markup sectors, with investment in low markup sectors significantly more responsive to exchange rates. Unlike pass-through elasticities, which are viewed as industry-specific, investment endogeneity to exchange rates is a country-specific phenomenon.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5139.

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Date of creation: Jun 1995
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Publication status: published as International Economic Review, Vol.40, no.2 (May 1999): 287-314.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5139

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  1. Campa, Joe Manuel, 1993. "Entry by Foreign Firms in the United States under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 614-22, November.
  2. Bodnar, Gordon M. & Gentry, William M., 1993. "Exchange rate exposure and industry characteristics: evidence from Canada, Japan, and the USA," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 29-45, February.
  3. Bartov, Eli & Bodnar, Gordon M, 1994. " Firm Valuation, Earnings Expectations, and the Exchange-Rate Exposure Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1755-85, December.
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  7. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Wages," NBER Working Papers 8137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1991. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," NBER Working Papers 3892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Jose Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1996. "Investment, pass-through, and exchange rates: a cross-country comparison," Staff Reports 14, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1995. "Tax Reforms and Investment: A Cross-Country Comparison," NBER Working Papers 5232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. John Y. Campbell & Richard H. Clarida, 1987. "The Dollar and Real Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  18. Linda S. Goldberg & Charles D. Kolstad, 1994. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 4815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Goldberg, Linda S., 1990. "Measuring External Openness: The Index Of Effective Exposure," Working Papers, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University 90-19, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  20. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-47, October.
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  23. Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Rotemberg, Julio J & Saloner, Garth, 1986. "A Supergame-Theoretic Model of Price Wars during Booms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 390-407, June.
  25. Michael M. Knetter, 1994. "Why are Retail Prices in Japan so High?: Evidence from German Export Prices," NBER Working Papers 4894, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Paul Krugman, 1986. "Pricing to Market when the Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 1926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Jose Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1997. "The Evolving External Orientation of Manufacturing Industries: Evidence from Four Countries," NBER Working Papers 5919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Hoshi, Takeo & Kashyap, Anil & Scharfstein, David, 1991. "Corporate Structure, Liquidity, and Investment: Evidence from Japanese Industrial Groups," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 33-60, February.
  29. Ian Domowitz & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1986. "Business Cycles and the Relationship Between Concentration and Price-Cost Margins," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(1), pages 1-17, Spring.
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  31. Catherine L. Mann, 1986. "Prices, profit margins, and exchange rates," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Jun, pages 366-379.
  32. Goldberg, Linda S, 1993. "Exchange Rates and Investment in United States Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 575-88, November.
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