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A global model for residential energy use: Uncertainty in calibration to regional data

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  • van Ruijven, Bas
  • de Vries, Bert
  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.
  • van der Sluijs, Jeroen P.

Abstract

Uncertainties in energy demand modelling allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a single model. We apply an automated model calibration procedure to analyse calibration uncertainty of residential sector energy use modelling in the TIMER 2.0 global energy model. This model simulates energy use on the basis of changes in useful energy intensity, technology development (AEEI) and price responses (PIEEI). We find that different implementations of these factors yield behavioural model results. Model calibration uncertainty is identified as influential source for variation in future projections: amounting 30% to 100% around the best estimate. Energy modellers should systematically account for this and communicate calibration uncertainty ranges.

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  • van Ruijven, Bas & de Vries, Bert & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van der Sluijs, Jeroen P., 2010. "A global model for residential energy use: Uncertainty in calibration to regional data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 269-282.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:1:p:269-282
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2009.09.019
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