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Estimation of consistent multi-country FEERs

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  • Carton, Benjamin
  • Hervé, Karine

Abstract

Most studies on equilibrium exchange rates focus on a limited number of G7 countries. But in a situation of world imbalances, emerging countries can no longer be excluded. The study of all equilibrium exchange rates is delicate. First, the trade model has to be balanced at the aggregate level. This paper suggests a method to achieve world balance both in volume and in value. Second, the N−1 bilateral exchange rates cannot ensure that the N areas will reach their macroeconomic equilibrium simultaneously. This paper examines the existing solutions to solve the N−1 problem and proposes an alternative which minimizes the distance to the current-account targets. Finally, in order to compare the relevance of the different methodologies, FEERs are calculated for 19 industrialized and developing countries. The results, which are taking into account the modification on output gap assessment induced by the 2008–2009 crisis, lead for the year 2010 to a USD closed to its equilibrium, a RMB undervalued by around 35% in real effective terms and to a EUR/USD parity equals to 1.47.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 29 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1205-1214

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:4:p:1205-1214

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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Keywords: Exchange rates; Current account adjustment;

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References

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  1. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, July.
  2. Didier Borowski & Cécile Couharde & Florence Thibault, 1998. "Les taux de change d'équilibre fondamentaux : de l'approche théorique à l'évaluation empirique," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 13(3), pages 177-206.
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Cited by:
  1. Jamel Saadaoui, 2013. "Global Imbalances: Should We Use Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Working Papers of BETA 2013-14, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  2. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00750551 is not listed on IDEAS

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