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Estimating Consistent Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates

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  • William R. Cline

    ()
    (Peterson Institute)

Abstract

This paper sets forth a new methodology for obtaining a consistent set of exchange rate realignments needed to accomplish international adjustment in current account imbalances to reach fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs). The approach is named the symmetric matrix inversion method (SMIM). It is symmetric in that ir treats all countries considered equally rather than seeking exact adjustment for the United States and obtaining other adjustments residually. Country-specific impact parameters based on assumed trade elasticities are applied to a target set of changes in current accounts as percentages of GDP to obtain a corresponding set of target changes in real effective (trade-weighted) exchange rates. A matrix inversion technique is then applied to identify the corresponding set of changes in bilateral exchange rates against the dollar needed to approach as closely as possible the target set of effective exchange rate changes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number WP08-6.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp08-6

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Keywords: Exchange Rates; Current Account Adjustment; Dollar;

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References

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  1. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2008. "New Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Policy Briefs PB08-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  2. William R. Cline, 2005. "United States as a Debtor Nation, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3993, July.
  3. William R. Cline, 1995. "International Economic Policy in the 1990s," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026203221x, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Carton, Benjamin & Hervé, Karine, 2012. "Estimation of consistent multi-country FEERs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1205-1214.
  2. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
  3. Jamel Saadaoui, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 1993-2005.
  4. Jamel Saadaoui & Jacques Mazier & Nabil Aflouk, 2013. "On the Determinants of Exchange Rate Misalignments," CEPN Working Papers halshs-00829460, HAL.
  5. Lòpez-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mazier, Jacques & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Temporal dimension and equilibrium exchange rate: A FEER/BEER comparison," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 58-77.
  6. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00829460 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente
    [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]
    ," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels: a FEER Approach," Post-Print halshs-00435836, HAL.
  9. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2009. "The evolution of the Sino-American Co-dependency: modelling a regime switch in a growth setting," Department of Economics Working Papers 0905, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  10. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignments, interdependence, crises, and currency wars: an empirical assessment," Textos para discussão 348, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  11. Nabil Aflouk & Jacques Mazier, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignments and economic growth: A threshold panel approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1333-1347.

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