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Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2013

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  • William R. Cline

    ()
    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Since the previous estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) in May 2013, numerous exchange rates have moved substantially in response to the US Federal Reserve's announcement that it would likely begin to "taper" its quantitative easing. Despite widespread concern that this "taper shock" has wreaked havoc in international capital and currency markets, exchange rate misalignments have tended to narrow in the past six months. Overvalued currencies have corrected downward in Turkey, South Africa, India, Indonesia, and even Australia. Medium-term surplus estimates have moderated in Taiwan, Sweden, Switzerland, and Japan, narrowing the extent of their undervaluations. Cases of large misalignments persist, however, with Singapore once again undervalued by 21 percent, New Zealand again overvalued by nearly 18 percent, and Turkey still overvalued by 18 percent despite some correction. The overvaluation of the dollar and undervaluation of the Chinese renminbi remain modest and no longer constitute the severe imbalances of 2006–07.

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Paper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Policy Briefs with number PB13-29.

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Date of creation: Dec 2013
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Handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb13-29

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