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Can competition between forecasters stabilize asset prices in learning to forecast experiments?

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  • Kopányi, Dávid
  • Rabanal, Jean Paul
  • Rud, Olga A.
  • Tuinstra, Jan

Abstract

We conduct a learning to forecast asset pricing experiment that assumes that financial advisors and professional forecasters attract more investors when their price forecasts are more accurate. The competition between forecasters implies that the impact of their forecasts on realized market prices evolves endogenously. We investigate how these endogenous impacts affect price dispersion and mispricing relative to the fundamental price. Our results show that the effect of endogenous impacts depends on (i) the type of market dynamics (stable/unstable) and (ii) the sensitivity of impacts with respect to forecast accuracy (low/high). Compared to the baseline treatment, where impacts are constant and independent of forecast accuracy, price dispersion and mispricing is somewhat lower in stable markets when impacts are moderately sensitive to forecast accuracy. In contrast, impacts that are strongly sensitive to forecast accuracy can further destabilize unstable markets, amplifying price dispersion and mispricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Kopányi, Dávid & Rabanal, Jean Paul & Rud, Olga A. & Tuinstra, Jan, 2019. "Can competition between forecasters stabilize asset prices in learning to forecast experiments?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:109:y:2019:i:c:s0165188919301678
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2019.103770
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    Cited by:

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    2. Rholes, Ryan & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 320-341.
    3. Zafer Akin, 2023. "Asymmetric guessing games," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 94(4), pages 637-676, May.
    4. Petersen, Luba & Rholes, Ryan, 2022. "Macroeconomic expectations, central bank communication, and background uncertainty: A COVID-19 laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Chernulich, Aleksei & Horowitz, John & Rabanal, Jean Paul & Rud, Olga A & Sharifova , Manizha, 2021. "Entry and exit decisions under public and private information: An experiment," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2021/3, University of Stavanger.
    6. Aleksei Chernulich & John Horowitz & Jean Paul Rabanal & Olga Rud & Manizha Sharifova, 2023. "Entry and exit decisions under public and private information: an experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(2), pages 339-356, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Experimental finance; Market impact; Expectation formation; Asset pricing; Learning to forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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