Learning to Forecast Price

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Learning to Forecast Price

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Hugh Kelley
Daniel Friedman

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Daniel Friedman

Abstract

We study learning in an individual choice price forecasting task in which subjects must learn coefficients of two independent variables in stationary linear stochastic processes. The 99 subjects each forecast in 480 trials with feedback. Learning is tracked by fitting individual forecasts to the independent variables. Results: (1) Learning is fairly consistent with respect to objective values, but with slight tendency toward overresponse. (2) Learning is noticeably slower than the Marcet-Sargent ideal. Two striking treatment effects are tendencies toward (3) overresponse with high background noise and (4) underresponse with asymmetric coefficients. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 40 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 556-573
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:40:y:2002:i:4:p:556-573

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Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2006. "Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Jan Tuinstra & Joep Sonnemans & Cars Hommes & Peter Heemeijer, 2006. "Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation," Working Papers wp06-18, Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
- Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009. "Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hommes, C.H., 2007. "Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
Marco Novarese, 2002. "Toward a Cognitive Experimental Economics," Experimental 0211002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
John Duffy, 2008. "Macroeconomics: A Survey of Laboratory Research," Working Papers 334, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2008. [Downloadable!]
Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J. & Velden, H. van de, 2002. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments (Revised June 2003)," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-07, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2004. "Generalised Fading Memory Learning in a Cobweb Model: some evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 272, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, . "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 119, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2003. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-010/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
- Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J. & Velden, H. van de, 2004. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments (Version March 2004)," CeNDEF Working Papers 04-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J. & Velden, H. van de, 2002. "Learning in Coweb Experiments," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]

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