Workers' self‐selection into public sector employment: A tale of absenteeism

This study investigated whether employees' career transitions from the private to the public sector are related to their previous absences, where absenteeism is a proxy for a preference for shirking (exerting low effort). The aim was to determine whether workers who shirk are more likely to select public sector jobs. We differentiated absenteeism by type, such as health problems or childcare obligations, versus a preference for low effort. Using 2004 to 2017 data from the German Socioeconomic Panel, which represented 50,565 person‐years, we estimated a duration model of private‐sector workers' exit into public employment, controlling for potential absenteeism drivers, and found a positive relationship between the probability of switching to public employment and absenteeism among workers who were in good health and had no children. This finding supports the conclusion that workers with a preference for low work effort tend to switch to public sector jobs. We further examined potential reverse causality and conducted various robustness checks. The policy implications and potential shortcomings of our results are discussed.