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Are Revisions to USDA Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Chang, Chia-Lin & de Bruijn, Bert & Franses, Philip Hans & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Analyzing fixed-event forecast revisions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 622-627.
  2. Christophe Gouel, 2020. "The Value of Public Information in Storable Commodity Markets: Application to the Soybean Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 846-865, May.
  3. Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin & Olga Isengildina‐Massa, 2020. "Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(2), pages 548-568, March.
  4. Fiechter, Chad & Kuethe, Todd & Zhang, Wendong, 2023. "Information Rigidities and Farmland Value Expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 202306131414240000, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  5. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H., 2006. "Understanding USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts: Methods, Performance and Market Impacts over 1970 - 2005," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37514, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  6. Sanders, Dwight & Altman, Ira J. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Anderson, Rachel, 2009. "Using USDA Production Forecasts: Adjusting for Smoothing," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2009, pages 1-9.
  7. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H., 2003. "Understanding USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts: An Overview of Methods, Performance and Market Impacts," AgMAS Project Research Reports 37496, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  8. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R. & Good, Darrel L., 2014. "Evaluation of Selected USDA WAOB and NASS Forecasts and Estimates in Corn and Soybeans," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports 183477, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  9. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H Irwin, 2017. "Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 559-583.
  10. MacDonald, Stephen & Ash, Mark & Cooke, Bryce, 2017. "The Evolution of Inefficiency in USDA’s Forecasts of U.S. and World Soybean Markets," MPRA Paper 87545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Botto, Augusto C. & Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2006. "Accuracy Trends and Sources of Forecast Errors in WASDE Balance Sheet Categories for Corn and Soybeans," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21332, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  12. Siddhartha S. Bora & Ani L. Katchova & Todd H. Kuethe, 2021. "The Rationality of USDA Forecasts under Multivariate Asymmetric Loss," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1006-1033, May.
  13. Kuethe, Todd H. & Hubbs, Todd & Sanders, Dwight R., 2018. "Evaluating the USDA’s Net Farm Income Forecast," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(3), September.
  14. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2007. "Do Big Crops Get Bigger and Small Crops Get Smaller? Further Evidence on Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37563, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  15. Raghav Goyal & Michael K. Adjemian, 2023. "Information rigidities in USDA crop production forecasts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(5), pages 1405-1425, October.
  16. Kusumastuti, Ratih Dyah & Donk, Dirk Pieter van & Teunter, Ruud, 2016. "Crop-related harvesting and processing planning: a review," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 76-92.
  17. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Bart Frijns & Ivan Indriawan & Alireza Tourani‐Rad, 2019. "Surprise and dispersion: informational impact of USDA announcements," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(1), pages 113-126, January.
  18. Aulerich, Nicole M. & Irwin, Scott H. & Nelson, Carl H., 2007. "The Impact of Measurement Error on Estimates of the Price Reaction to USDA Crop Reports," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37579, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  19. Olga Isengildina‐Massa & Berna Karali & Todd H. Kuethe & Ani L. Katchova, 2021. "Joint Evaluation of the System of USDA's Farm Income Forecasts," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 1140-1160, September.
  20. Bahram Sanginabadi, 2018. "USDA Forecasts: A meta-analysis study," Papers 1801.06575, arXiv.org.
  21. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Berna Karali & Scott H. Irwin, 2013. "When do the USDA forecasters make mistakes?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(36), pages 5086-5103, December.
  22. Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004. "Does The Market Anticipate Smoothing In Usda Crop Production Forecasts?," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20145, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  23. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H., 2005. "Understanding USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts: Methods, Performance and Market Impacts over 1970 - 2004," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14785, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  24. Tianyang Zhang & Ziran Li, 2022. "Can a rational expectation storage model explain the USDA ending grain stocks forecast errors?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 313-337, March.
  25. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H., 2011. "USDA Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates and Yield Forecasts: Dispelling Myths and Misunderstandings," Marketing and Outlook Briefs 183528, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  26. Taylor, Christopher W., 2012. "Market Reactions to USDA Reports: State Analysis of Corn Price Response," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124661, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  27. MacDonald, Stephen & Isengildina-Massa, Olga, 2012. "Information Rigidity and Correcting Inefficiency in USDA’s Commodity Forecasts," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124890, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
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