Information Rigidity and Correcting Inefficiency in USDA’s Commodity Forecasts
This study investigates the rationality of monthly revisions in annual forecasts of supply, demand and price for U.S. corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat, published in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates over 1985/86-2010/11. The findings indicate that USDA's forecast revisions are not independent across months, and that forecasts are typically smoothed. Adjustment for smoothing in a subset of forecasts (1998/2000-2010/11) showed mixed results: significant improvements for soybean use forecasts, cotton exports, and a broad cross-section of forecasts published in October. However, accuracy deteriorated in some cases, particularly for late-season preliminary data revisions.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olga Isengildina & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good, 2006.
"Are Revisions to USDA Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1091-1104.
- Isengildina, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2004. "Are Revisions To Usda Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19027, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Isengildina-Massa, Olga & MacDonald, Stephen & Xie, Ran, 2012. "A Comprehensive Evaluation of USDA Cotton Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(1), April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea12:124890. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.