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Overconfidence in Newsvendor Orders: An Experimental Study

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Cited by:

  1. Ferretti, Valentina & Montibeller, Gilberto & von Winterfeldt, Detlof, 2023. "Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115333, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Tarikere T. Niranjan & Narendra K. Ghosalya & Raveen R. Menon & Kristian Rotaru & Srinagesh Gavirneni, 2023. "Unpacking the cognitive processes of the boundedly rational newsvendor," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(10), pages 3138-3157, October.
  3. Jinpyo Lee, 2019. "Impact of Loss-Aversion on a Financially-Constrained Supply Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, May.
  4. Tingliang Huang & Zhe Yin & Ying-Ju Chen, 2017. "Managing Posterior Price Matching: The Role of Customer Boundedly Rational Expectations," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 19(3), pages 385-402, July.
  5. Anil Gaba & Dana G. Popescu & Zhi Chen, 2019. "Assessing Uncertainty from Point Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 90-106, January.
  6. S. Di Luozzo & A. Fronzetti Colladon & M. M. Schiraldi, 2024. "Decoding excellence: Mapping the demand for psychological traits of operations and supply chain professionals through text mining," Papers 2403.17546, arXiv.org.
  7. Liu, Zhongyi & Li, Mengyu & Lei, Ying & Zhai, Xin, 2022. "A joint strategy based on ordering and insurance for mitigating the effects of supply chain disruption on risk-averse firms," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
  8. Becker-Peth, Michael & Thonemann, Ulrich W., 2016. "Reference points in revenue sharing contracts—How to design optimal supply chain contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1033-1049.
  9. Du, Xianjin & Zhan, Huimin & Zhu, Xiaoxuan & He, Xiuli, 2021. "The upstream innovation with an overconfident manufacturer in a supply chain," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  10. Villa, Sebastián & Castañeda, Jaime Andrés, 2018. "Transshipments in supply chains: A behavioral investigation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(2), pages 715-729.
  11. Song, Zhuzhu & Tang, Wansheng & Zhao, Ruiqing & Zhang, Guoqing, 2021. "Inventory strategy of the risk averse supplier and overconfident manufacturer with uncertain demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
  12. Katharina Dowling & Lucas Stich & Martin Spann, 2021. "An experimental analysis of overconfidence in tariff choice," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 15(8), pages 2275-2297, November.
  13. Liu, Jie & Yang, Yang & Yu, Yugang, 2021. "Ordering and interest rate strategies in platform finance with an overconfident and commerce retailer," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
  14. Weihua Liu & Xinran Shen & Di Wang, 2020. "The impacts of dual overconfidence behavior and demand updating on the decisions of port service supply chain: a real case study from China," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 291(1), pages 565-604, August.
  15. Meng Li & Nicholas C. Petruzzi & Jun Zhang, 2017. "Overconfident Competing Newsvendors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(8), pages 2637-2646, August.
  16. Yun Shin Lee & Enno Siemsen, 2017. "Task Decomposition and Newsvendor Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3226-3245, October.
  17. Hao, Zhongyuan & Li, Juan & Cai, Jinling, 2023. "Allocation of inventory responsibilities in overconfident supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(1), pages 207-221.
  18. Jain, Tarun & Hazra, Jishnu & Cheng, T.C.E., 2018. "Sourcing under overconfident buyer and suppliers," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 93-109.
  19. Yinghao Zhang & Karen Donohue & Tony Haitao Cui, 2016. "Contract Preferences and Performance for the Loss-Averse Supplier: Buyback vs. Revenue Sharing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1734-1754, June.
  20. Yingshuai Zhao & Xiaobo Zhao, 2016. "How a competing environment influences newsvendor ordering decisions," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(1), pages 204-214, January.
  21. Langnickel, Ferdinand & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2016. "Do we measure overconfidence? A closer look at the interval production task," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 121-133.
  22. Chen, Junlin & Feng, Xiaojing & Kou, Gang & Mu, Mengting, 2023. "Multiproduct newsvendor with cross-selling and narrow-bracketing behavior using data mining methods," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
  23. Wang, Lingling & Wu, Yong & Hu, Shengqiang, 2021. "Make-to-order supply chain coordination through option contract with random yields and overconfidence," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
  24. Jiajun He & Yiming Zhao & Beijia Zhang & Lin Chen & Xiuxiu Ma, 2025. "The Impact of Blockchain Technology on Green Investment Decisions for a Sustainable Supply Chain with an Overconfident Manufacturer," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32, January.
  25. Jiang, Li & Hao, Zhongyuan, 2024. "Holding diverse market beliefs by firms: Information flow, profit performances, and channel structure," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  26. Jianghua Zhang & Daniel Zhuoyu Long & Rowan Wang & Chi Xie, 2021. "Impact of Penalty Cost on Customers' Booking Decisions," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(6), pages 1603-1614, June.
  27. Choi, Tsan-Ming, 2018. "Incorporating social media observations and bounded rationality into fashion quick response supply chains in the big data era," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 386-397.
  28. Yufei Ren & David Croson & Rachel Croson, 2017. "The overconfident newsvendor," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(5), pages 496-506, May.
  29. Hofstra, Nienke & Spiliotopoulou, Eirini, 2022. "Behavior in rationing inventory across retail channels," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 208-222.
  30. Diego D’Urso & Ferdinando Chiacchio & Evangelia Demerouti, 2021. "Measuring How Decision Support Systems Improve Newsvendors’ Performance: The Subjects’ Version," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-16, September.
  31. Sim, Jeongeun & Kim, Bosung, 2024. "Is green optimism good for the environment but bad for firms?—A study on green optimism in a supply chain," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
  32. Wu, Meng & Bai, Tian & Zhu, Stuart X., 2018. "A loss averse competitive newsvendor problem with anchoring," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 99-111.
  33. Bai, Tian & Feng, Gengzhong & Wu, Meng & Zhu, Stuart X., 2025. "A newsvendor model with multiple reference points: Target-setting for aspirational newsvendors," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 320(3), pages 655-669.
  34. Wei Lu & Yu Jiang & Panpan Xia & Zhimin Huang, 2023. "How retailer overconfidence affects supply chain transparency with manufacturer encroachment," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 329(1), pages 1149-1174, October.
  35. Zhisong Chen & Chaonan Tang & Jianhui Peng, 2023. "Nominal effect vs actual effect: overconfidence in a consignment omnichannel," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 843-876, June.
  36. Bhavani Shanker Uppari & Sameer Hasija, 2019. "Modeling Newsvendor Behavior: A Prospect Theory Approach," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 481-500, July.
  37. Caliendo, Marco & Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Silva-Goncalves, Juliana & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2024. "Locus of control and the preference for agency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
  38. Yan, Xiaoyu & Liu, Weihua & Tang, Ou & Hou, Jiahe, 2024. "When will an overconfident entrant in the two-sided market do more good than harm?," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
  39. Di Wang & Weihua Liu & Yanjie Liang, 2024. "Green innovation in logistics service supply chain: the impacts of relationship strength and overconfidence," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 343(3), pages 949-979, December.
  40. Chen, Xin & Xu, Weijun & Wu, Meng, 2024. "Newsvendor overconfidence and advertising," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  41. Samuel N. Kirshner & Zhaolin Li, 2022. "Supply chain contracting with competing regretful retailers," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2196-2211, September.
  42. Kirshner, Samuel Nathan & Shao, Lusheng, 2019. "The overconfident and optimistic price-setting newsvendor," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(1), pages 166-173.
  43. Ferretti, Valentina & Montibeller, Gilberto & von Winterfeldt, Detlof, 2023. "Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 661-675.
  44. Kirshner, Samuel N. & Shao, Lusheng, 2018. "Internal and external reference effects in a two-tier supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(3), pages 944-957.
  45. Karen Donohue & Özalp Özer, 2020. "Behavioral Operations: Past, Present, and Future," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 22(1), pages 191-202, January.
  46. Shoufeng Ji & Dan Zhao & Xiaoshuai Peng, 2018. "Joint Decisions on Emission Reduction and Inventory Replenishment with Overconfidence and Low-Carbon Preference," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, April.
  47. Cao, Bing-Bing & Fan, Zhi-Ping & You, Tian-Hui, 2017. "The newsvendor problem with reference dependence, disappointment aversion and elation seeking," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 568-574.
  48. Xinsheng Xu & Zhiqing Meng & Ping Ji & Chuangyin Dang & Hongwei Wang, 2016. "On the newsvendor model with conditional Value-at-Risk of opportunity loss," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(8), pages 2449-2458, April.
  49. Tian Bai & Samuel N. Kirshner & Meng Wu, 2021. "Managing Overconfident Newsvendors: A Target‐Setting Approach," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(11), pages 3967-3986, November.
  50. Jammernegg, Werner & Kischka, Peter & Silbermayr, Lena, 2022. "Heterogeneity, asymmetry and applicability of behavioral newsvendor models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(2), pages 638-646.
  51. Youkyung Won, 2016. "Dominance Relationship Among the Retailer’s Strategies Under the Semi-Stackelberg Newsvendor Situation with Quantity Discounts," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 33(02), pages 1-20, April.
  52. Christian Köster & Heike Y. Schenk-Mathes, 2016. "Explanatory and predictive power of the adaptive learning model: average and heterogeneous behavior in a newsvendor context," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 86(4), pages 361-387, May.
  53. Khosrowabadi, Naghmeh & Hoberg, Kai & Lee, Yun Shin, 2025. "Guiding supervisors in artificial intelligence-enabled forecasting: Understanding the impacts of salience and detail on decision-making," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 716-732.
  54. Wei, Ying & Xiong, Sijia & Li, Feng, 2019. "Ordering bias with two reference profits: Exogenous benchmark and minimum requirement," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 229-250.
  55. Daniel Feiler & Jordan Tong, 2022. "From Noise to Bias: Overconfidence in New Product Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4685-4702, June.
  56. Cao, Qian & Li, Jianbiao & Niu, Xiaofei, 2019. "The role of overconfidence in overweighting private information: Does gender matter?," EconStor Preprints 203448, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  57. Yi Dong & Xuejiao Liu & Gerald J. Lobo & Chenkai Ni, 2024. "Overprecise forecasts," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 276-326, March.
  58. Bachler, Sebastian & Haeussler, Stefan & Momsen, Katharina & Stefan, Matthias, 2024. "Do people willfully ignore decision support? Evidence from an online experiment," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302404, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  59. Robert J. Batt & Jordan D. Tong, 2020. "Mean Service Metrics: Biased Quality Judgment and the Customer–Server Quality Gap," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 22(5), pages 975-995, September.
  60. Christian Köster & Heike Schenk-Mathes & Christopher Specht, 2019. "Explanatory power of behavioral models in the newsvendor problem: a simulation study," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(2), pages 311-324, June.
  61. Yan Zhang & Juan Li & Qinglong Gou, 2017. "An allocation game model with reciprocal behavior and its applications in supply chain pricing decisions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 258(2), pages 347-368, November.
  62. Philipp Koellinger & Theresa Treffers, 2015. "Joy Leads to Overconfidence, and a Simple Countermeasure," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-22, December.
  63. Song-Hee Kim & Jordan Tong & Carol Peden, 2020. "Admission Control Biases in Hospital Unit Capacity Management: How Occupancy Information Hurdles and Decision Noise Impact Utilization," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(11), pages 5151-5170, November.
  64. Kalakbandi, Vinay Kumar, 2018. "Managing the misbehaving retailer under demand uncertainty and imperfect information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(3), pages 939-954.
  65. Khosrowabadi, Naghmeh & Hoberg, Kai & Imdahl, Christina, 2022. "Evaluating human behaviour in response to AI recommendations for judgemental forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(3), pages 1151-1167.
  66. Jialu Li, 2025. "Demand Forecast Investment by Overconfident Retailer in Supply Chains," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-24, April.
  67. Samuel Nathan Kirshner & Anton Ovchinnikov, 2019. "Heterogeneity of Reference Effects in the Competitive Newsvendor Problem," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 571-581, July.
  68. Ji, Xiang & Sun, Jiasen & Wang, Zebin, 2017. "Turn bad into good: Using transshipment-before-buyback for disruptions of stochastic demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 150-161.
  69. Liguo Zhou & Shan Lu & Dan Si, 2025. "Research on the Bullwhip Effect Based on Retailers’ Overconfidence in the Sustainable Supply Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-26, May.
  70. Jordan Tong & Daniel Feiler, 2017. "A Behavioral Model of Forecasting: Naive Statistics on Mental Samples," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3609-3627, November.
  71. Jialu Li & Meng Li & Xuan Zhao, 2021. "Transshipment Between Overconfident Newsvendors," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(9), pages 2803-2813, September.
  72. Yin, Xile & Li, Jianbiao & Bao, Te, 2019. "Does overconfidence promote cooperation? Theory and experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 119-133.
  73. Choi, Tsan-Ming & Zhang, Ting, 2023. "Will being an angel bring more harm than good? Altruistic newsvendors with different risk attitudes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1153-1165.
  74. Xu, Xinsheng & Ji, Ping & Sang, Shuming, 2023. "Supply option purchasing decisions via mismatch cost minimization," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 260-280.
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