IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v291y2020i1d10.1007_s10479-018-3095-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impacts of dual overconfidence behavior and demand updating on the decisions of port service supply chain: a real case study from China

Author

Listed:
  • Weihua Liu

    (Tianjin University)

  • Xinran Shen

    (Tianjin University)

  • Di Wang

    (Tianjin University)

Abstract

In this paper, the impacts of dual overconfidence behavior and demand updating on the decisions of port service supply chain are studied with the real case study method. A port service supply chain consists of Tianjin Port, a shipping company, and a customer is investigated. A dual overconfidence behavior-based decision model under a demand updating background is built. Then the effects of Tianjin Port’s overconfidence (TPO) behavior and the shipping company’s overconfidence (SCO) behavior on the port service level (PSL), carrying volume and utilities are analyzed. Numerical analysis with real case data is conducted. Several important conclusions are obtained in this paper. Firstly, it is identified that the SCO leads to a decrease in the shipping company’s utilities, while dual overconfidence behavior causes the increase of Tianjin Port’s utilities. Secondly, it is found that the effect of the SCO on the PSL and the effect of TPO on the PSL offset each other which will lead to a threshold in TPO. This threshold is affected by the SCO, and demand updating amplifies this effect. Thirdly, demand updating not only adds to the shipping company’s carrying volume and PSL, but also increases the utilities of both parties. Lastly, it is unexpectedly found that there are interactions between demand updating and dual overconfidence behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Weihua Liu & Xinran Shen & Di Wang, 2020. "The impacts of dual overconfidence behavior and demand updating on the decisions of port service supply chain: a real case study from China," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 291(1), pages 565-604, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:291:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-018-3095-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-018-3095-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-018-3095-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-018-3095-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elena Katok & Diana Yan Wu, 2009. "Contracting in Supply Chains: A Laboratory Investigation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(12), pages 1953-1968, December.
    2. Weihua Liu & Di Wang & Ou Tang & Donglei Zhu, 2018. "The impacts of logistics service integrator's overconfidence behaviour on supply chain decision under demand surge," European Journal of Industrial Engineering, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 12(4), pages 558-597.
    3. Wang, Fan & Zhuo, Xiaopo & Niu, Baozhuang & He, Jiayi, 2017. "Who canvasses for cargos? Incentive analysis and channel structure in a shipping supply chain," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 78-101.
    4. Khalid Bichou & Richard Gray, 2004. "A logistics and supply chain management approach to port performance measurement," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 47-67, January.
    5. Jean-Paul Rodrigue & Theo Notteboom, 2009. "The terminalization of supply chains: reassessing the role of terminals in port/hinterland logistical relationships," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 165-183, April.
    6. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
    7. Berk, Emre & Gurler, Ulku & Levine, Richard A., 2007. "Bayesian demand updating in the lost sales newsvendor problem: A two-moment approximation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 256-281, October.
    8. AJ A. Bostian & Charles A. Holt & Angela M. Smith, 2008. "Newsvendor "Pull-to-Center" Effect: Adaptive Learning in a Laboratory Experiment," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 590-608, July.
    9. Teck-Hua Ho & Noah Lim & Tony Haitao Cui, 2010. "Reference Dependence in Multilocation Newsvendor Models: A Structural Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 1891-1910, November.
    10. Ross Robinson, 2006. "Port-Oriented Landside Logistics in Australian Ports: A Strategic Framework," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 8(1), pages 40-59, March.
    11. Gary D. Eppen & Ananth. V. Iyer, 1997. "Backup Agreements in Fashion Buying---The Value of Upstream Flexibility," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(11), pages 1469-1484, November.
    12. Chen, Haoya & Chen, Jian & Chen, Youhua (Frank), 2006. "A coordination mechanism for a supply chain with demand information updating," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 347-361, September.
    13. John J Liu & Ziping Wang & Dong-Qing Yao & Xiaohang Yue, 2016. "Transaction cost analysis of supply chain logistics services: firm-based versus port-focal," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 67(2), pages 176-186, February.
    14. Gary D. Eppen & Ananth. V. Iyer, 1997. "Improved Fashion Buying with Bayesian Updates," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 45(6), pages 805-819, December.
    15. Kai Nie & Man Yu, 2013. "Research on fresh agriculture product based on overconfidence of the retailer under options and spot markets dominated," Papers 1312.2203, arXiv.org.
    16. Carlo, Héctor J. & Vis, Iris F.A. & Roodbergen, Kees Jan, 2014. "Storage yard operations in container terminals: Literature overview, trends, and research directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 412-430.
    17. Jeffrey Martin & Brian J. Thomas, 2001. "The container terminal community," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 279-292, July.
    18. Zhang, Juliang & Shou, Biying & Chen, Jian, 2013. "Postponed product differentiation with demand information update," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 529-540.
    19. Yong Zha & Jiahong Zhang & Xiaohang Yue & Zhongsheng Hua, 2015. "Service supply chain coordination with platform effort-induced demand," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 235(1), pages 785-806, December.
    20. Yufei Ren & David Croson & Rachel Croson, 2017. "The overconfident newsvendor," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(5), pages 496-506, May.
    21. Michael D. Grubb, 2009. "Selling to Overconfident Consumers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1770-1807, December.
    22. Gary E. Bolton & Elena Katok, 2008. "Learning by Doing in the Newsvendor Problem: A Laboratory Investigation of the Role of Experience and Feedback," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 519-538, September.
    23. Xiaowei Zhu, 2017. "Outsourcing management under various demand Information Sharing scenarios," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 257(1), pages 449-467, October.
    24. Chen, Haoya & Chen, Youhua (Frank) & Chiu, Chun-Hung & Choi, Tsan-Ming & Sethi, Suresh, 2010. "Coordination mechanism for the supply chain with leadtime consideration and price-dependent demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 70-80, May.
    25. Yufei Ren & Rachel Croson, 2013. "Overconfidence in Newsvendor Orders: An Experimental Study," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2502-2517, November.
    26. Maurice E. Schweitzer & Gérard P. Cachon, 2000. "Decision Bias in the Newsvendor Problem with a Known Demand Distribution: Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(3), pages 404-420, March.
    27. Lu, Xin & Shang, Jennifer & Wu, Shin-yi & Hegde, Gajanan G. & Vargas, Luis & Zhao, Daozhi, 2015. "Impacts of supplier hubris on inventory decisions and green manufacturing endeavors," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(1), pages 121-132.
    28. Özen, Ulaş & Sošić, Greys & Slikker, Marco, 2012. "A collaborative decentralized distribution system with demand forecast updates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 216(3), pages 573-583.
    29. Carlo, Héctor J. & Vis, Iris F.A. & Roodbergen, Kees Jan, 2014. "Transport operations in container terminals: Literature overview, trends, research directions and classification scheme," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 236(1), pages 1-13.
    30. So, Kut C. & Zheng, Xiaona, 2003. "Impact of supplier's lead time and forecast demand updating on retailer's order quantity variability in a two-level supply chain," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 169-179, November.
    31. Asadabadi, Ali & Miller-Hooks, Elise, 2017. "Optimal transportation and shoreline infrastructure investment planning under a stochastic climate future," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 156-174.
    32. Haresh Gurnani & Christopher S. Tang, 1999. "Note: Optimal Ordering Decisions with Uncertain Cost and Demand Forecast Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1456-1462, October.
    33. Lee, Jongsu & Lee, Chul-Yong & Lee, Kichun Sky, 2012. "Forecasting demand for a newly introduced product using reservation price data and Bayesian updating," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(7), pages 1280-1291.
    34. Valentina Carbone & Marcella De Martino, 2003. "The changing role of ports in supply-chain management: an empirical analysis," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 305-320, October.
    35. Bichou, K. & Gray, R., 2005. "A critical review of conventional terminology for classifying seaports," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 75-92, January.
    36. Simone Caschili & Francesca Medda & Francesco Parola & Claudio Ferrari, 2014. "An Analysis of Shipping Agreements: The Cooperative Container Network," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 357-377, December.
    37. Anupam Agrawal & Suresh Muthulingam & Tharanga Rajapakshe, 2017. "How Sourcing of Interdependent Components Affects Quality in Automotive Supply Chains," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 26(8), pages 1512-1533, August.
    38. Mafakheri, Fereshteh & Breton, Michele & Ghoniem, Ahmed, 2011. "Supplier selection-order allocation: A two-stage multiple criteria dynamic programming approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 52-57, July.
    39. Ma, Lijun & Zhao, Yingxue & Xue, Weili & Cheng, T.C.E. & Yan, Houmin, 2012. "Loss-averse newsvendor model with two ordering opportunities and market information updating," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 912-921.
    40. Andy A. Tsay, 1999. "The Quantity Flexibility Contract and Supplier-Customer Incentives," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1339-1358, October.
    41. Alexandrou, George & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Thomas, Hardy M., 2014. "Mergers and acquisitions in shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 212-234.
    42. Weihua Liu & Dong Xie & Yang Liu & Xiaoyan Liu, 2015. "Service capability procurement decision in logistics service supply chain: a research under demand updating and quality guarantee," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 488-510, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jifeng Cao & Cheng Ma, 2022. "Procurement Strategies and Auction Mechanism for Heterogeneous Service Providers in a Service Supply Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-36, July.
    2. Yongtao Peng & Bohai Chen & Eleonora Veglianti, 2022. "Platform Service Supply Chain Network Equilibrium Model with Data Empowerment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Liu, Jie & Yang, Yang & Yu, Yugang, 2021. "Ordering and interest rate strategies in platform finance with an overconfident and commerce retailer," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    4. Yan, Xiaoyu & Liu, Weihua & Tang, Ou & Hou, Jiahe, 2024. "When will an overconfident entrant in the two-sided market do more good than harm?," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meng Li & Nicholas C. Petruzzi & Jun Zhang, 2017. "Overconfident Competing Newsvendors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(8), pages 2637-2646, August.
    2. Weihua Liu & Shuqing Wang & DongLei Zhu & Di Wang & Xinran Shen, 2018. "Order allocation of logistics service supply chain with fairness concern and demand updating: model analysis and empirical examination," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 268(1), pages 177-213, September.
    3. Becker-Peth, Michael & Thonemann, Ulrich W., 2016. "Reference points in revenue sharing contracts—How to design optimal supply chain contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1033-1049.
    4. Weihua Liu & Donglei Zhu & Yijia Wang, 2017. "Capacity Procurement in Logistics Service Supply Chain with Demand Updating and Rational Expectation Behavior," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(06), pages 1-48, December.
    5. Yufei Ren & David Croson & Rachel Croson, 2017. "The overconfident newsvendor," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 68(5), pages 496-506, May.
    6. Kirshner, Samuel N. & Shao, Lusheng, 2018. "Internal and external reference effects in a two-tier supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(3), pages 944-957.
    7. Karen Donohue & Özalp Özer, 2020. "Behavioral Operations: Past, Present, and Future," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 22(1), pages 191-202, January.
    8. Christian Köster & Heike Y. Schenk-Mathes, 2016. "Explanatory and predictive power of the adaptive learning model: average and heterogeneous behavior in a newsvendor context," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 86(4), pages 361-387, May.
    9. Kalakbandi, Vinay Kumar, 2018. "Managing the misbehaving retailer under demand uncertainty and imperfect information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(3), pages 939-954.
    10. Michael Becker-Peth & Elena Katok & Ulrich W. Thonemann, 2013. "Designing Buyback Contracts for Irrational But Predictable Newsvendors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(8), pages 1800-1816, August.
    11. Wei, Ying & Xiong, Sijia & Li, Feng, 2019. "Ordering bias with two reference profits: Exogenous benchmark and minimum requirement," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 229-250.
    12. Villa, Sebastián & Castañeda, Jaime Andrés, 2018. "Transshipments in supply chains: A behavioral investigation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(2), pages 715-729.
    13. Li Chen & A. Gürhan Kök & Jordan D. Tong, 2013. "The Effect of Payment Schemes on Inventory Decisions: The Role of Mental Accounting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(2), pages 436-451, September.
    14. Castañeda, Jaime Andrés & Brennan, Mark & Goentzel, Jarrod, 2019. "A behavioral investigation of supply chain contracts for a newsvendor problem in a developing economy," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 72-83.
    15. Samuel Nathan Kirshner & Anton Ovchinnikov, 2019. "Heterogeneity of Reference Effects in the Competitive Newsvendor Problem," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 21(3), pages 571-581, July.
    16. Diego D’Urso & Ferdinando Chiacchio & Evangelia Demerouti, 2021. "Measuring How Decision Support Systems Improve Newsvendors’ Performance: The Subjects’ Version," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-16, September.
    17. Yufei Ren & Rachel Croson, 2013. "Overconfidence in Newsvendor Orders: An Experimental Study," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2502-2517, November.
    18. Yinghao Zhang & Karen Donohue & Tony Haitao Cui, 2016. "Contract Preferences and Performance for the Loss-Averse Supplier: Buyback vs. Revenue Sharing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1734-1754, June.
    19. DeYong, Gregory D. & Cattani, Kyle D., 2018. "The unlimited newsvendor: A general solution to a class of two-period newsvendor problems," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 173-192.
    20. Samuel N. Kirshner & Zhaolin Li, 2022. "Supply chain contracting with competing regretful retailers," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2196-2211, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:291:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-018-3095-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.