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Reference Dependence in Multilocation Newsvendor Models: A Structural Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Teck-Hua Ho

    () (Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California 94720)

  • Noah Lim

    () (Wisconsin School of Business, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706)

  • Tony Haitao Cui

    () (Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455)

Abstract

We propose a behavioral theory to predict actual ordering behavior in multilocation inventory systems. The theory rests on a well-known stylized fact of human behavior: people's preferences are reference dependent. We incorporate reference dependence into the newsvendor framework by assuming that there are psychological costs of leftovers and stockouts. We also hypothesize that the psychological aversion to leftovers is greater than the disutility for stockouts. We then experimentally test the proposed theory in both the centralized and decentralized inventory structures using subjects motivated by substantial financial incentives. Consistent with the proposed theory, actual orders exhibit the so-called "pull-to-center" bias and the degree of bias is greater in the high-profit margin than in the low-profit margin condition. These systematic biases are shown to eliminate the risk-pooling benefit when the demands across store locations are strongly correlated. Because the proposed model nests the standard inventory and ex post inventory error minimization theories as special cases, one can systematically evaluate the predictive power of each alternative using the generalized likelihood principle. We structurally estimate all three theories using the experimental data, and the estimation results strongly suggest that the proposed behavioral theory captures actual orders and profits better. We also conduct two experiments to validate the behavioral model by manipulating the relative salience of the psychological costs of leftovers versus that of stockouts to alleviate the pull-to-center bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Teck-Hua Ho & Noah Lim & Tony Haitao Cui, 2010. "Reference Dependence in Multilocation Newsvendor Models: A Structural Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 1891-1910, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:56:y:2010:i:11:p:1891-1910
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1100.1225
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arshavskiy V. & Okulov V. & Smirnova A., 2014. "Newsvendor Problem Experiments: Riskiness of the Decisions and Learning by Experience," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 4(5), pages 137-150, May.
    2. Becker-Peth, Michael & Thonemann, Ulrich W., 2016. "Reference points in revenue sharing contracts—How to design optimal supply chain contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1033-1049.
    3. Gary E. Bolton & Axel Ockenfels & Ulrich W. Thonemann, 2012. "Managers and Students as Newsvendors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(12), pages 2225-2233, December.
    4. repec:eee:enepol:v:109:y:2017:i:c:p:579-589 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:transe:v:103:y:2017:i:c:p:248-260 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Yefen Chen & Xuanming Su & Xiaobo Zhao, 2012. "Modeling Bounded Rationality in Capacity Allocation Games with the Quantal Response Equilibrium," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(10), pages 1952-1962, October.
    7. Oberlaender, Michael & Dobhan, Alexander, 2014. "Behavioral analysis and adaptation of a negotiation based, quantitative planning approach for hybrid organizations," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 31-38.
    8. Helen Bao & Chunming Meng, 2017. "Loss Aversion and Residential Property Development Decisions in China: A Semi-Parametric Estimation," ERES eres2017_156, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    9. Ockenfels, Axel & Selten, Reinhard, 2014. "Impulse balance in the newsvendor game," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 237-247.
    10. Bao, Helen X. H. & Meng, Charlotte Chunming, 2017. "Loss Aversion and Residential Property Development Decisions in the People’s Republic of China: A Semi-Parametric Estimation," ADBI Working Papers 640, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    11. Schiffels, Sebastian & Fügener, Andreas & Kolisch, Rainer & Jens Brunner, O., 2014. "On the assessment of costs in a newsvendor environment: Insights from an experimental study," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-8.
    12. Christian Köster & Heike Y. Schenk-Mathes, 2016. "Explanatory and predictive power of the adaptive learning model: average and heterogeneous behavior in a newsvendor context," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 86(4), pages 361-387, May.
    13. Li Chen & A. Gürhan Kök & Jordan D. Tong, 2013. "The Effect of Payment Schemes on Inventory Decisions: The Role of Mental Accounting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(2), pages 436-451, September.
    14. Zhang, Xiang, 2014. "Reference-dependent electric vehicle production strategy considering subsidies and consumer trade-offs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 422-430.

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