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Markov-switching model selection using Kullback-Leibler divergence

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Cited by:

  1. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
  2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11711 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Philippe J. Deschamps, 2008. "Comparing smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of US unemployment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 435-462.
  4. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2014. "The Number Of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification And Economic Value," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(06), pages 1-25.
  5. James D. Hamilton & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2011. "Sources of variation in holding returns for fed funds futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 205-229, March.
  6. Dendramis, Yiannis & Kapetanios, George & Tzavalis, Elias, 2014. "Level shifts in stock returns driven by large shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 41-51.
  7. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2014. "Modified Quasi-Likelihood Ratio Test for Regime Switching," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 65(1), pages 25-41, March.
  8. Doi, Takero & Hoshi, Takeo & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2011. "Japanese government debt and sustainability of fiscal policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 414-433.
  9. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2017. "The term structure of credit spreads and business cycle in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 27-36.
  10. N. Baba & Y. Sakurai, 2011. "Predicting regime switches in the VIX index with macroeconomic variables," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1415-1419.
  11. Ghysels, Eric & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "Regime switches in the risk–return trade-off," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 118-138.
  12. Dibooglu, Sel & Erdogan, Seyfettin & Yildirim, Durmus Cagri & Cevik, Emrah Ismail, 2020. "Financial conditions and monetary policy in the US," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
  13. Kaihua Deng, 2018. "Another Look at Large-Cap Stock Return Comovement: A Semi-Markov-Switching Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(2), pages 227-262, February.
  14. Rinke Saskia & Sibbertsen Philipp, 2016. "Information criteria for nonlinear time series models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 325-341, June.
  15. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
  16. Oded Netzer & James M. Lattin & V. Srinivasan, 2008. "A Hidden Markov Model of Customer Relationship Dynamics," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 185-204, 03-04.
  17. Melvin Woodley, 2021. "Decoupling the individual effects of multiple marketing channels with state space models," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 248-255, June.
  18. Philippe J. Deschamps, 2008. "Comparing smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of US unemployment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 435-462.
  19. Roque Montero & Javier García-Cicco, 2012. "Modelo y Pronóstico del Precio del Cobre: Un Enfoque de Cambio de Regímenes," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 15(2), pages 099-116, August.
  20. Josh Stillwagon & Peter Sullivan, 2020. "Markov switching in exchange rate models: will more regimes help?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 413-436, July.
  21. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
  22. Girardin, Eric & Salimi Namin, Fatemeh, 2019. "The January effect in the foreign exchange market: Evidence for seasonal equity carry trades," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-439.
  23. Fatemeh Salimi Namin, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2037, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
  24. Heinrich, Markus & Carstensen, Kai & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik, 2017. "Predicting Ordinary and Severe Recessions with a Three-State Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model. An Application to the German Business Cycle," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168206, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  25. Bejaoui, Azza & Karaa, Adel, 2016. "Revisiting the bull and bear markets notions in the Tunisian stock market: New evidence from multi-state duration-dependence Markov-switching models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 529-545.
  26. Song, Wonho & Ryu, Doojin & Webb, Robert I., 2016. "Overseas market shocks and VKOSPI dynamics: A Markov-switching approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 275-282.
  27. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 285-302, April.
  28. Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses, 2015. "Does Disagreement Amongst Forecasters Have Predictive Value?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 290-302, July.
  29. Christian Aßmann & Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2010. "Analysis of current account reversals via regime switching models," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 21-43, February.
  30. Smith Aaron, 2012. "Markov Breaks in Regression Models," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-35, May.
  31. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2011. "The Number of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification and Economic Value," Post-Print halshs-00658540, HAL.
  32. Lee, Hwa-Taek & Yoon, Gawon, 2007. "Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold Sometimes? Regime Switching in Real Exchange Rates," Economics Working Papers 2007-24, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  33. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes, 2011. "Monetary regime switches and unstable objectives," International Finance Discussion Papers 1036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  34. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "Regional and global spillovers and diversification opportunities in the GCC equity sectors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 160-187.
  35. Baba, Naohiko & Sakurai, Yuji, 2011. "When and how US dollar shortages evolved into the full crisis? Evidence from the cross-currency swap market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1450-1463, June.
  36. Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2013. "Assessing the number of components in a normal mixture: an alternative approach," MPRA Paper 50303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Nan Li & Simon S. Kwok, 2021. "Jointly determining the state dimension and lag order for Markov‐switching vector autoregressive models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 471-491, July.
  38. Fatemeh Salimi, 2020. "Exchange Rates, Stock Prices, and Stock Market Uncertainty," Working Papers halshs-03007904, HAL.
  39. ZHENG, Tingguo & WANG, Xia & GUO, Huiming, 2012. "Estimating forward-looking rules for China's Monetary Policy: A regime-switching perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 47-59.
  40. Hamilton, J.D., 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 163-201, Elsevier.
  41. Huseyin Tastan & Nuri Yildirim, 2008. "Business cycle asymmetries in Turkey: an application of Markov-switching autoregressions," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 315-333.
  42. Xu, Jianjun & Tan, Xianming & Zhang, Runchu, 2010. "A note on Phillips (1991): "A constrained maximum likelihood approach to estimating switching regressions"," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 35-41, January.
  43. Peter Ebbes & Rajdeep Grewal & Wayne DeSarbo, 2010. "Modeling strategic group dynamics: A hidden Markov approach," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 241-274, June.
  44. Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2010. "Estimation Methods Comparison of SVAR Models with a Mixture of Two Normal Distributions," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 2(4), pages 279-314, September.
  45. Elena Derunova & Alexandr Semenov & Olga Balash & Anna Firsova, 2016. "The Mechanisms of Formation of Demand in the High-Tech Products Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 96-102.
  46. Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 285-302, April.
  47. L. Scaffidi Domianello & E. Otranto, 2023. "On the relationship between Markov Switching inference and Fuzzy Clustering: A Monte Carlo evidence," Working Paper CRENoS 202304, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
  48. Kerekes, Monika, 2009. "Growth miracles and failures in a Markov switching classification model of growth," Discussion Papers 2009/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
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