IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International evidence for return predictability and the implications for long-run covariation of the G7 stock markets


  • Thomas Nitschka


Temporary fluctuations of the U.S. consumption-wealth ratio, cay, predict excess returns on international stock markets at the business cycle frequency. This finding is the reflection of a common, temporary component in national stock markets. Exposure to this common component explains up to 60 percent of the covariation among long-horizon returns on the G7 stock markets for the time period from 1973 to 2005. The impact of the common component on stock market comovement is particularly pronounced in the period from 1990 to 2005.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Nitschka, 2007. "International evidence for return predictability and the implications for long-run covariation of the G7 stock markets," IEW - Working Papers 338, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  • Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:338

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Brooks, Robin & Del Negro, Marco, 2004. "The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 659-680, December.
    2. Hamburg, Britta & Hoffmann, Mathias & Keller, Joachim, 2005. "Consumption, wealth and business cycles: why is Germany different?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,16, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Richards, Anthony J., 1995. "Comovements in national stock market returns: Evidence of predictability, but not cointegration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 631-654, December.
    4. Campbell, John Y & Hamao, Yasushi, 1992. " Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 43-69, March.
    5. Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2006. "Firm-Level Evidence on International Stock Market Comovement," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(1), pages 69-98.
    6. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
    7. Alvin Tan & Graham Voss, 2000. "Consumption and Wealth," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-09, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    9. Heaton, John & Lucas, Deborah, 2000. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Background Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 1-26, January.
    10. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
    11. Lance A. Fisher & Graham M. Voss, 2004. "Consumption, Wealth and Expected Stock Returns in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 359-372, December.
    12. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Portfolio Choice and Asset Prices: The Importance of Entrepreneurial Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1163-1198, June.
    13. Berben, Robert-Paul & Jansen, W. Jos, 2005. "Comovement in international equity markets: A sectoral view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 832-857, September.
    14. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & Simon Price & Andrew Blake, 2003. "The dynamics of consumers' expenditure: the UK consumption ECM redux," Bank of England working papers 204, Bank of England.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Nitschka, Thomas, 2011. "Banking sectors' international interconnectedness: Implications for consumption risk sharing in Europe," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48684, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. repec:eee:phsmap:v:483:y:2017:i:c:p:309-318 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Thomas Nitschka, 2010. "Idiosyncratic consumption risk and predictability of the carry trade premium: Euro-Area evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 24(1), pages 49-65, March.
    4. Castro, Andressa Monteiro de & Issler, João Victor, 2016. "Consumption-Wealth Ratio and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Panel Data on G7 Countries," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 70(4), December.
    5. Mathias Hoffmann & Thomas Nitschka, 2008. "Securitization of Mortgage Debt, Asset Prices and International Risk Sharing," IEW - Working Papers 376, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    6. Thomas Nitschka, 2012. "Global and country-specific business cycle risk in time-varying excess returns on asset markets," Working Papers 2012-10, Swiss National Bank.
    7. Nitschka, Thomas, 2013. "The impact of (global) business cycle risk on the German and British stock markets: Evidence from the first age of globalization," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 118-124.
    8. Alain Galli, 2016. "How reliable are cointegration-based estimates for wealth effects on consumption? Evidence from Switzerland," Working Papers 2016-03, Swiss National Bank.
    9. Khurshid M. Kiani, 2016. "On Modelling and Forecasting Predictable Components in European Stock Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(3), pages 487-502, October.
    10. Nitschka, Thomas, 2014. "Developed markets’ business cycle dynamics and time-variation in emerging markets’ asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 76-82.
    11. Nitschka, Thomas, 2011. "About the soundness of the US-cay indicator for predicting international banking crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 237-256.
    12. repec:eee:phsmap:v:486:y:2017:i:c:p:397-407 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. H. -L. Shi & W. -X. Zhou, 2017. "Wax and wane of the cross-sectional momentum and contrarian effects: Evidence from the Chinese stock markets," Papers 1707.05552,
    14. Nitschka, Thomas, 2010. "Cashflow news, the value premium and an asset pricing view on European stock market integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1406-1423, November.
    15. Thomas Nitschka, 2008. "The Risk Premium on the Euro Area Market Portfolio: The Role of Real Estate," IEW - Working Papers 385, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    16. Huai-Long Shi & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2017. "Time series momentum and contrarian effects in the Chinese stock market," Papers 1702.07374,
    17. Nitschka, Thomas, 2010. "Securitization, collateral constraints and consumption risk sharing in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 197-199, March.

    More about this item


    U.S. consumption-wealth ratio; stock market comovement; stock return predictability;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marita Kieser). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.