The Consumption - Real Exchange Rate Anomaly: an Asset Pricing Perspective
Idiosyncratic consumption risk explains more than 60 percent of the cross-sectional variation in quarterly exchange rate changes and currency returns. Our results are obtained from data of 13 industrialized countries and are based on an international version of the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) in which we account for international consumption heterogeneity. We use this framework to dissect the consumption-exchange rate anomaly, the empirical fact that international variation in purchasing power alone does not appear to account for differences in consumption growth rates across countries. As an explanation for this phenomenon, we explore the presence of currency risk premia that also lead to departures from uncovered interest parity (UIP). We decompose the cross-sectional variation in consumption into one component that is due to cross-country differences in inflation rates and a second component that is due to international variation in nominal interest rates. We interpret these factors as indicators of goods and financial market segmentation respectively. We find that both help account to virtually equal parts for the cross-section of exchange rate changes. Interestingly, the price of aggregate consumption risk has declined over the 1990s, in line with a growing literature that documents a growing internationalisation of country portfolios over this period.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Schönberggasse 1, CH-8001 Zürich|
Phone: +41-1-634 21 37
Fax: +41-1-634 49 82
Web page: http://www.econ.uzh.ch/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kollmann, R., 1992.
"Consumption, Real Exchange Rates and the Structure of International Asset Markets,"
Cahiers de recherche
9232, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Kollmann, Robert, 1995. "Consumption, real exchange rates and the structure of international asset markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 191-211, April.
- Robert Kollmann, 1995. "Consumption, real exchange rates and the structure of international asset markets," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7642, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Kollmann, R., 1992. "Consumption, Real Exchange Rates and the Structure of International Asset Markets," Cahiers de recherche 9232, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2007.
"The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 89-117, March.
- Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-045, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Adrien Verdelhan & Hanno Lustig, 2005. "The Cross-Section Of Foreign Currency Risk Premia And Consumption Growth Risk," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-019, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Lustig, H. & Verdelhan, A., 2006. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," Working papers 155, Banque de France.
- Ravn, Morten O, 2001. "Consumption Dynamics and Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2940, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33.
- Sergei Sarkissian, 2003. "Incomplete Consumption Risk Sharing and Currency Risk Premiums," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 983-1005, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:331. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marita Kieser)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.