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The dynamics of self-employment in East Germany: an empirical analysis using panel data and allowing for state dependence and endogenous attrition

Listed author(s):
  • Lechner, Michael

The focus of the paper is on the analysis of the individual determinants of self-employment in East Germany after unification, with special respect to the dynamic issues which may arise. The data set used is the Arbeitsmarkt-Monitor für die neuen Bundesländer, which is a panel data set consisting of four waves covering the period from November 1990 to November 1991. The attrition rate in this data set is high. The data set and the economic questions of interest give raise to methodological issues concerning estimation techniques for limited dependent variable models on panel data. Smooth Simulated Maximum Likelihood methods are proposed to allow for state dependence as well as endogenous attrition in the estimation. The results indicate the importance of the dynamics which drive the emergence of the small business sector in East Germany. Other important factors appear to be human capital aspects, institutional restrictions, expectations about the future of the local economy, the profession in 1989 and martial status. The simulations performed confirm the importance of the dynamics and suggest that self-employment in East Germany might reach the level of self-employment in West Germany as soon as 1995.

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 93-24.

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Date of creation: 1993
Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:9324
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  1. Nijman, Theo & Verbeek, Marno, 1992. "Nonresponse in Panel Data: The Impact on Estimates of a Life Cycle Consumption Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 243-257, July-Sept.
  2. Verbeek, Marno, 1990. "On the estimation of a fixed effects model with selectivity bias," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 267-270, November.
  3. Friedhelm PFEIFFER & Winfried POHLMEIER, 1992. "Income, Uncertainty and the Probability of Self-Employment," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1992032, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  4. Arellano, M. & Bover, O. & Labeaga, J.M., 1997. "Autoregressive Models with Sample Selectivity for Panel Data," Papers 9706, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  5. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1993. "Simulation-based inference : A survey with special reference to panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 5-33, September.
  6. Hausman, Jerry A & Wise, David A, 1979. "Attrition Bias in Experimental and Panel Data: The Gary Income Maintenance Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 455-473, March.
  7. Lechner, Michael & Pfeiffer, Friedhelm & O'Shea, Linda Giesecke, 1993. "Expected Job Loss in East Germany Shortly before German Unification," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 289-306.
  8. Stern, Steven, 1992. "A Method for Smoothing Simulated Moments of Discrete Probabilities in Multinomial Probit Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 943-952, July.
  9. James J. Heckman, 1981. "Heterogeneity and State Dependence," NBER Chapters,in: Studies in Labor Markets, pages 91-140 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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