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True Versus Spurious State Dependence in Firm Performance: The Case of West German Exports


  • Kaiser, Ulrich
  • Kongsted, Hans Christian


This paper analyzes the persistence of firms' exporting behavior in a panel of West German manufacturing firms. Dynamic binary choice models allow us to distinguish between true and spurious state dependence in firm performance. Using random effects models as well as a recent fixed effect approach which imposes few restrictions on unobservables, we find robust evidence of state dependence in the current export status of firms. Unobserved permanent firm heterogeneity ("spurious state dependence") is found to be less important than suggested by earlier studies. The existence of true state dependence in exports has direct economic policy implications: if policy successfully turns non-exporters into exporters, the effect is likely to be lasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaiser, Ulrich & Kongsted, Hans Christian, 2004. "True Versus Spurious State Dependence in Firm Performance: The Case of West German Exports," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-81, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:2886

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Anna Christina D'Addio & Bo E. Honoré, "undated". "Duration Dependence and Timevarying Variables in Discrete Time Duration Models," Economics Working Papers 2002-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Almus, Matthias & Czarnitzki, Dirk, 2003. "The Effects of Public R&D Subsidies on Firms' Innovation Activities: The Case of Eastern Germany," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(2), pages 226-236, April.
    3. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Why Some Firms Export," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 561-569, May.
    4. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-564, September.
    5. Bo E. Honoré & Ekaterini Kyriazidou, 2000. "Panel Data Discrete Choice Models with Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 839-874, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bettina Peters, 2009. "Persistence of innovation: stylised facts and panel data evidence," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 226-243, April.
    2. Matthieu Bussière, 2013. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets: how early were the ‘early’ warning signals?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1601-1623, April.
    3. Zhang, Ning, 2009. "Generators' bidding behavior in the NYISO day-ahead wholesale electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 897-913, November.
    4. Mangelsdorf, Stefan, 2010. "Die Transformation des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes in Berlin/Brandenburg unter Berücksichtigung der Exporte : eine empirische Analyse mit amtlichen Mikrodaten
      [The transition of the manufacturing indus
      ," MPRA Paper 39304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Fryges, Helmut, 2006. "Hidden champions - how young and small technology-oriented firms can attain high export-sales ratios," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-045, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

    More about this item


    state dependence; export activity; dynamic binary choice models;

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models


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