True versus spurious state dependence in firm performance: the case of West German exports
This paper analyzes the persistence of firms’ exporting behavior in a panel of West German manufacturing firms. Dynamic binary choice models allow us to distinguish between true and spurious state dependence in firm performance. Using random effects models as well as a recent fixed effect approach which imposes few restrictions on unobservables, we find robust evidence of state dependence in the current export status of firms. Unobserved permanent firm heterogeneity (“spurious state dependence”) is found to be less important than suggested by earlier studies. The existence of true state dependence in exports has direct economic policy implications: if policy successfully turns non-exporters into exporters, the effect is likely to be lasting.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2004|
|Date of revision:|
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Economics Working Papers
2002-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
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01-05, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
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ZEW Discussion Papers
01-10, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
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- Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-64, September.
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