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Options for the exchange rate policies in the EU accession countries (and other emerging market economies)

  • Bofinger, Peter
  • Wollmershäuser, Timo

We develop an institutional framework for central banks that try to pursue a stability-oriented monetary policy with the strategy of exchange rate targeting. Recent experience shows that a crucial element of this approach is to avoid destabilising capital inflows. Policy makers can exert monetary pressure by two different but interrelated channels: the interest rate and the exchange rate. We introduce an open-economy Taylor rule which determines the domestic interest rate of a central bank targeting a depreciation of its exchange rate. The interrelation of the two channels is taken into account by a risk premium adjusted uncovered interest parity condition. In our view sustained violations of this constraint provide an important explanation for the problem of speculative capital inflows. We distinguish between two basically different types of pegs: fixed nominal exchange rate targets and flexible nominal exchange rate targets. With the lessons that we draw from the past experiences of these regimes in Asia, Latin America, Eastern and Central Europe and the ERM I, we develop a framework for the exchange rate strategies of the accession countries during their path towards EMU entry.

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Paper provided by University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics in its series W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers with number 13.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:13
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Web page: http://www.vwl.uni-wuerzburg.de/en/no_cache/lehrstuehle/vwl1/home/Email:


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  1. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jadresic, Esteban & Masson, Paul & Mauro, Paolo, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes of Developing Countries: Global Context and Individual Choices," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 68-101, March.
  3. Takatoshi Ito, 2000. "Capital Flows in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 255-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Miguel A. Savastano & Paul R. Masson & Sunil Sharma, 1997. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/130, International Monetary Fund.
  6. John Williamson, 1996. "Crawling Band as an Exchange Rate Regime: Lessons from Chile, Colombia and Israel, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 14, May.
  7. Helmut Reisen, 1998. "Domestic Causes of Currency Crises: Policy Lessons for Crisis Avoidance," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 136, OECD Publishing.
  8. Sveinbjörn Blöndal & Hans Christiansen, 1999. "The Recent Experience with Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 211, OECD Publishing.
  9. Kenneth A. Froot & Paul G.J. O'Connell & Mark S. Seasholes, 1998. "The Portfolio Flows of International Investors, I," NBER Working Papers 6687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  11. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Lessons from the Asian Crisis," NBER Working Papers 7102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Barry J. Eichengreen & Inci Ötker & A. Javier Hamann & Esteban Jadresic & R. B. Johnston & Hugh Bredenkamp & Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Exit Strategies; Policy Options for Countries Seeking Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Occasional Papers 168, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy of Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe after the Launch of EMU," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 99/5, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
  15. R. Golinelli & R. Orsi, 2001. "Hungary and Poland," Working Papers 424, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
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