IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/mpifgd/1511.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Diskretionäre Wechselkursregime: Erfahrungen aus dem Europäischen Währungssystem, 1979-1998

Author

Listed:
  • Höpner, Martin
  • Spielau, Alexander

Abstract

Im Kontext der Eurokrise wird mitunter der Übergang in ein diskretionäres Wechselkursregime diskutiert, das seinen Teilnehmern politisch verhandelte Auf- und Abwertungen ermöglichen würde. Über die Wünschbarkeit und die Wirkungsweisen solcher Auf- und Abwertungen finden sich in der Debatte unterschiedlichste Annahmen. Das Papier unternimmt daher einen Rückblick auf das Europäische Währungssystem (EWS), das von 1979 bis 1998 Bestand hatte. Es beruhte auf Interventionsverpflichtungen zur kurzfristigen Stabilisierung der Wechselkurse, ermöglichte aber die Neuaushandlung der Währungsparitäten, wenn die Preisentwicklungen in den teilnehmenden Ländern zu heterogen wurden. Insgesamt fanden im EWS 62 Wechselkursanpassungen zu 18 unterschiedlichen Zeitpunkten statt. Die Wechselkursanpassungen halfen bei der kurzfristigen Minimierung von Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichten, verhinderten aber nicht die mittelfristige Neuentstehung von Anpassungsdruck. Auf Abwertungen erfolgten keine Inflationsschübe und auf Aufwertungen keine Wachstumseinbrüche. Auch entstand kein Abwertungswettlauf, sondern vielmehr eine persistente Spaltung von Ländern unter Auf- und Abwertungsdruck. Ein erhebliches Manko des EWS war die politische Energie, die in regelmäßigen Abständen in die Neuaushandlung der Wechselkurse und damit in die "Pflege" des diskretionären Wechselkursregimes investiert werden musste. Mit diesem Problem sähe sich auch ein etwaig aus dem Euro hervorgehendes EWS II konfrontiert.

Suggested Citation

  • Höpner, Martin & Spielau, Alexander, 2015. "Diskretionäre Wechselkursregime: Erfahrungen aus dem Europäischen Währungssystem, 1979-1998," MPIfG Discussion Paper 15/11, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:1511
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/125444/1/844421464.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott Urban, 2014. "Policy Options for the Euro: Heterodoxy Ahead," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 742-757, July.
    2. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
    3. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2017. "The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198791447.
    4. C. Randall Henning, 1994. "Currencies and Politics in the United States, Germany, and Japan," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 15, October.
    5. Herbert Walther, 2012. "Einige Gedanken zur Eurokrise aus keynesianischer Sicht," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 38(2), pages 211-230.
    6. Bryon Higgins, 1993. "Was the ERM crisis inevitable?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 78(Q IV), pages 27-40.
    7. Höpner, Martin, 2014. "Transnationale Lohnkoordination in einem System fester Wechselkurse," WSI-Mitteilungen, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 67(4), pages 317-319.
    8. repec:clr:wugarc:y:2012:v:38i:2p:211 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hall, Peter A. & Franzese, Robert J., 1998. "Mixed Signals: Central Bank Independence, Coordinated Wage Bargaining, and European Monetary Union," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 505-535, July.
    10. Höpner, Martin & Lutter, Mark, 2014. "One currency and many modes of wage formation: Why the eurozone is too heterogeneous for the euro," MPIfG Discussion Paper 14/14, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Höpner, Martin, 2019. "The German undervaluation regime under Bretton Woods: How Germany became the nightmare of the world economy," MPIfG Discussion Paper 19/1, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    2. Markus Knell, 2002. "Wage Formation in Open Economies and the Role of Monetary and Wage-Setting Institutions," Working Papers 63, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    3. Clément Fontan Fontan & Emmanuel Carré & Guillaume L'Oeillet, 2018. "Theoretical perspectives on the new era of central banking," Post-Print halshs-01866838, HAL.
    4. Kogut, Bruce & Macpherson, J. Muir, 2011. "The mobility of economists and the diffusion of policy ideas: The influence of economics on national policies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 1307-1320.
    5. Ghassan Dibeh, 2014. "The Political Economy of Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Arab Economies," Working Papers 896, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
    6. Tim Vlandas, 2016. "The impact of the elderly on inflation rates in developed countries," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 107, European Institute, LSE.
    7. Gordon L. Clark, 2015. "The geography of the European Central Bank: form, functions and legitimacy," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 855-881.
    8. Yannick LUCOTTE, 2009. "Central Bank Independence and Budget Deficits in Developing Countries: New Evidence from Panel Analysis," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 303, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    9. Chouliarakis, George & Correa-López, Mónica, 2011. "Monetary institutions, imperfect competition and employment outcomes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 131-148, August.
    10. Hein, Eckhard, 2001. "Institutions and macroeconomic performance: Central bank independence, labour market institutions and the perspectives for inflation and employment in the European Monetary Union," WSI Working Papers 95, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans Böckler Foundation.
    11. Hyunwoo Kim, 2023. "Monetary technocracy and democratic accountability: how central bank independence conditions economic voting," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 939-964, May.
    12. Cukierman, Alex, 2008. "Central bank independence and monetary policymaking institutions -- Past, present and future," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 722-736, December.
    13. Jeroen Klomp & Jakob De Haan, 2010. "Inflation And Central Bank Independence: A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 593-621, September.
    14. Thompson, Daniel, 2021. "Stagnant services and the gradual disinflation of advanced economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 128-148.
    15. Scharpf, Fritz W., 2016. "Forced structural convergence in the eurozone: Or a differentiated European monetary community," MPIfG Discussion Paper 16/15, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    16. Tadadjeu Wemba, Dessy-Karl & Essiane, Patrick-Nelson Daniel, 2018. "Autonomie des Banques Centrales et Finances Publiques en Afrique subsaharienne [Autonomy of Central Banks and Public Finances in Sub-saharan Africa]," MPRA Paper 100828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Athanasios Anastasiou, 2009. "Central Bank Independence and Economic Performance," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 3(1), pages 123-156, June.
    18. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    19. Taliercio, Robert Jr., 2004. "Administrative Reform as Credible Commitment: The Impact of Autonomy on Revenue Authority Performance in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 213-232, February.
    20. Herman Bennett & Norman Loayza, 2002. "Policy Biases when the Monetary and Fiscal Authorities Have Different Objectives," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 11, pages 299-330, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:mpifgd:1511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mpigfde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.