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Economic impacts of climate change on two Mexican coastal fisheries: Implications to food security

  • Aguilar Ibarra, Alonso
  • Sanchez Vargas, Armando
  • Martinez Lopez, Benjamin
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    This paper has a two-fold objective. First, to estimate the changes in landings value by 2030 of two Mexican coastal fisheries: shrimp and sardines as a consequence of climate change. And second, to discuss the implications for food security of such impacts. We estimated output equations using a dynamic panel model for the Mexican fisheries sector with data from 1990 through 2009. Scenarios were generated for the expected changes in fish production. Our results suggest that shrimp production will be negatively affected in about 1.1% in decreasing catch for every 1% of temperature increase by 2030. In contrast, the sardine fishery would benefit by approximately a 4% increase in production for every 1% increase in temperature. For the shrimp fishery, losses amount from US$ 95 million (discount rate = 4%) to US$ 444 million (discount rate = 1%). For the sardine fishery, gains range from US$ 46 million (discount rate = 4%) to US$ 184 million (discount rate = 1%). Most losses/gains would be observed in the NW Mexican Pacific, where the fishing sector has an important role in the local economy and represents therefore a risk to food security on a local basis.

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    Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2012-64.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201264
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    1. U. Srinivasan & William Cheung & Reg Watson & U. Sumaila, 2010. "Food security implications of global marine catch losses due to overfishing," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 183-200, October.
    2. McIlgorm, Alistair & Hanna, Susan & Knapp, Gunnar & Le Floc'H, Pascal & Millerd, Frank & Pan, Minling, 2010. "How will climate change alter fishery governance[glottal stop] Insights from seven international case studies," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 170-177, January.
    3. Grafton, R. Quentin, 2009. "Adaptation to Climate Change in Marine Capture Fisheries," Research Reports 94886, Australian National University, Environmental Economics Research Hub.
    4. Badjeck, Marie-Caroline & Allison, Edward H. & Halls, Ashley S. & Dulvy, Nicholas K., 2010. "Impacts of climate variability and change on fishery-based livelihoods," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 375-383, May.
    5. U. Sumaila & Ahmed Khan & Andrew Dyck & Reg Watson & Gordon Munro & Peter Tydemers & Daniel Pauly, 2010. "A bottom-up re-estimation of global fisheries subsidies," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 201-225, October.
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