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The role of sentiment in the provision of credit

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  • Meyer, Björn O.

Abstract

The provision of credit has been shown to be eminent for macroeconomic activity. Recent research highlighted that optimism may play a role in the provision of credit through leverage cycles. A decomposition of corporate bond spreads allows the modelling of a propensity-to-lend through an excess bond premium. In the US economy, optimism in various sentiment measures causes within a VAR model, including other financial market variables, a fall of this excess bond premium and therefore increase the propensity-to-lend. Use of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and animal spirit indices show a variation of information content in sentiment and different types of animal spirits. The overall reaction to positive animal spirits seems to be dominated by a positive response of the credit provision and its subsequent reversal, while an increase in the MCSI causes a more persistent positive response.

Suggested Citation

  • Meyer, Björn O., 2014. "The role of sentiment in the provision of credit," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 466, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwasw:466
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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