IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Never change a winning team: An analysis of hazard rates in the NBA


  • Dilger, Alexander


We estimate Cox models to determine proportional hazard rates in professional basketball, concerning leaving the league or changing the team by using a database covering all players of the NBA in the 90's. We predict and confirm that league-hazards depend on a player's performance. A teamswitch, however, cannot depend on low performance itself because there has to be a team willing to accept the (new) player. Accordingly we find that a good scoring performance and an intense use of a player reduces the probability of a team-switch, whereas high salaries or non-scoring performance do not.

Suggested Citation

  • Dilger, Alexander, 2002. "Never change a winning team: An analysis of hazard rates in the NBA," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 03/2002, University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:grewdp:032002

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Alison L. Booth & Marco Francesconi & Carlos Garcia-Serrano, 1999. "Job Tenure and Job Mobility in Britain," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 53(1), pages 43-70, October.
    2. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    3. Rosen, Sherwin & Sanderson, Allen, 2001. "Labour Markets in Professional Sports," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(469), pages 47-68, February.
    4. J. C. H. Jones & William D. Walsh, 1988. "Salary Determination in the National Hockey League: The Effects of Skills, Franchise Characteristics, and Discrimination," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 41(4), pages 592-604, July.
    5. Scully, Gerald W, 1974. "Pay and Performance in Major League Baseball," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 915-930, December.
    6. Chapman, Kenneth S & Southwick, Lawrence, Jr, 1991. "Testing the Matching Hypothesis: The Case of Major-League Baseball," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1352-1360, December.
    7. Hoang, Ha & Rascher, Dan, 1999. "The NBA, Exit Discrimination, and Career Earnings," MPRA Paper 3542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ohtake, F. & Ohkusa, Y., 1992. "Testing the Matching Hypothsis: The Case of Professional Baseball in Japan with Comparisons to the US," ISER Discussion Paper 0278, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    9. Campbell, Carl M, III, 1993. "Do Firms Pay Efficiency Wages? Evidence with Data at the Firm Level," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(3), pages 442-470, July.
    10. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-990, October.
    11. Idson, Todd L & Kahane, Leo H, 2000. "Team Effects on Compensation: An Application to Salary Determination in the National Hockey League," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 345-357, April.
    12. Lazear, Edward P, 1999. "Personnel Economics: Past Lessons and Future Directions: Presidential Address to the Society of Labor Economists, San Francisco, May 1, 1998," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 199-236, April.
    13. Yasushi Ohkusa, 2001. "An Empirical Examination of the Quit Behavior of Professional Baseball Players in Japan," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 2(1), pages 80-88, February.
    14. Ohkusa, Yasushi & Ohtake, Fumio, 1996. "The relationship between supervisor and workers -- The case of professional baseball in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 475-488, December.
    15. Lawrence M. Kahn, 2000. "The Sports Business as a Labor Market Laboratory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 75-94, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:grewdp:032002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.