Population Aging and the Rise of Populism in Europe

This paper identifies population aging as an important driver of populism using multilevel regression analysis on individuals from European countries between 2002 and 2019. Unlike individual aging, we focus on population- level demographic change measured by the old-age dependency ratio (OADR), i.e., the ratio of people aged 65 and over to those of working age. which captures the structural balance between older and economically active populations. Using data from nine rounds of the European Social Survey, we examine the relationship between population aging and populist attitudes, captured through voting for populist parties, political trust, and immigration attitudes. Our findings suggest that population aging is associated with declining electoral turnout, higher support for populist parties, lower trust in political institutions, and increased anti-immigrant sentiment. These effects appear across both younger and older voters, indicating that aging societies influence political preferences beyond individual aging. They may operate through mechanisms such as economic insecurity, cultural backlash, or shifts in collective societal priorities.