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Markthochlaufszenarien für Elektrofahrzeuge: Rückblick und Ausblick bis 2030

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  • Gnann, Till
  • Speth, Daniel
  • Plötz, Patrick
  • Wietschel, Martin
  • Krail, Michael

Abstract

Die Verbreitung von Elektrofahrzeugen spielt eine wichtige Rolle zur Erreichung der Klimaziele im Verkehrssektor und kann auch zu einer größeren Unabhängigkeit der Energieversorgung beitragen. Die Erforschung ihrer Verbreitung ist daher weiterhin von großer Relevanz. Im Rahmen einer Studie für die Nationale Plattform Elektromobilität (NPE) wurden im Jahr 2013 Markthochlaufszenarien für Elektrofahrzeuge bis zum Jahr 2020. Fast zehn Jahre später wird ihm Rahmen dieses Working Papers die damalige Methodik und die Ergebnisse mit realen Entwicklungen abgeglichen. Zudem werden methodische Neuerungen erläutert und ein Ausblick auf Modellergebnisse für das Jahr 2030 gewagt, um die neue politisch gesetzte Zielerreichung von 15 Millionen reinen Elektrofahrzeugen und die Treibhausgas(THG)-Minderungsziele unter die Lupe zu nehmen. Es zeigt sich, dass viele Entwicklungen gut eingeschätzt wurden und man aufgrund der niedrigen Kraftstoffpreise lange keine nennenswerte Marktdurchdringung von Elektrofahrzeugen sehen konnte. Mit zahlreichen politischen Fördermaßnahmen und der EU-Regulierung über die Flottengrenzwerte lag Deutschland Ende 2020 jedoch im mittleren Bereich des 2013 aufgespannten Ergebnisraums. Auch für 2030 ist die Zielerreichung maßgeblich abhängig vom Niveau der Flottengrenzwerte und ambitionierten Zwischenschritten bei der THG-Emissionsminderung. Nur dann können 15 Millionen reine Elektrofahrzeuge 2030 erreicht werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Gnann, Till & Speth, Daniel & Plötz, Patrick & Wietschel, Martin & Krail, Michael, 2022. "Markthochlaufszenarien für Elektrofahrzeuge: Rückblick und Ausblick bis 2030," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S05/2022, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s052022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Plötz, Patrick & Gnann, Till & Wietschel, Martin, 2014. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data — Part I: Model structure and validation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 411-421.
    2. Gnann, Till & Plötz, Patrick & Kühn, André & Wietschel, Martin, 2014. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data: German market and policy options," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S12/2014, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    3. Plötz, Patrick & Gnann, Till & Wietschel, Martin, 2014. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data. Part I: Model structure and validation," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S4/2014, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    4. Münzel, Christiane & Plötz, Patrick & Sprei, Frances & Gnann, Till, 2019. "How large is the effect of financial incentives on electric vehicle sales? – A global review and European analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
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