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Das NVIDIA-Dilemma der deutschen Automobilindustrie

Author

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  • Schulz, Wolfgang H.

Abstract

Dieses Arbeitspapier analysiert die mikroökonomischen Konsequenzen der Open-Source-Freigabe des autonomen Fahrstacks von NVIDIA (Drive AV, Halos, CUDA-X AV) für die deutsche Automobilindustrie. Die Freigabe wird in drei theoretische Schichten eingebettet: (i) eine Plattformstrategie, die indirekte Netzwerkeffekte und die Kippdynamik zweiseitiger Märkte nutzt, (ii) eine Anwendung von Spolskys „commoditize your complements"-Strategie, bei der NVIDIA die Softwareschicht verschenkt, um die Rente auf der komplementären Hardwareschicht (GPU, DRIVE SoC) zu maximieren, und (iii) ein ökonomisches Regime fallender Grenzkosten durch AI-Factory-Effekte. Auf Basis einer erweiterten Kostenfunktion wird gezeigt, dass das gewinnmaximierende Cournot-Ergebnis bei fallenden Grenzkosten durch höheren Output und niedrigere Preise gekennzeichnet ist als das klassische natürliche Monopol, bei zugleich stärkerer Marktkonzentration. Das Papier schlägt eine Gerschenkron-inspirierte Latecomer-Lösung vor: eine zeitlich begrenzte Adoptionsphase als „Rent-Seeking-Brücke zur Unabhängigkeit", flankiert von europäischen Dateninfrastrukturen (GAIA-X, moveID), regulatorischen Leitplanken gegen Plattform-Lock-in und einer Investitionsstrategie in Richtung souveräner KI-Mobilitätsinfrastruktur.

Suggested Citation

  • Schulz, Wolfgang H., 2026. "Das NVIDIA-Dilemma der deutschen Automobilindustrie," EconStor Preprints 340040, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:340040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment
    • L86 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Information and Internet Services; Computer Software
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • D42 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Monopoly
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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