IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofitp/bdp2011_027.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Explaining money demand in China during the transition from a centrally planned to a market-based monetary system

Author

Listed:
  • Delatte, Anne-Laure
  • Fouguau, Julien
  • Holz, Carsten A.

Abstract

We examine the transition process from a centrally planned to a market-based monetary system in China, with the objective of giving a functional form to the transition in money demand. Applying the cointegrating Time-Varying Smooth Transition Regression model proposed by Choi and Saikkonen (2004) on a constructed dataset spanning the period from 1984 to 2010, and using a seasonal unit-root test developed by Hylleberg et al. (1990), our findings invalidate much of the earlier literature. Our examination of disaggregate as well as aggregate money balances yields the following findings. (1) Households have an infinite demand for money at prevailing interest rates. (2) Enterprises have gradually gained decision-making authority over their deposits. (3) Money is a complement rather than a substitute to capital and this has become more prominent over the period. (4) The credit plan has ceased to be a significant driver of money holdings after 1997. (5) In the aggregate monetary sphere, the deposit interest rate has gained only a minor role as a monetary instrument, and only since 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Delatte, Anne-Laure & Fouguau, Julien & Holz, Carsten A., 2011. "Explaining money demand in China during the transition from a centrally planned to a market-based monetary system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 27/2011, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2011_027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/212715/1/bofit-dp2011-027.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Austin, Darran & Ward, Bert & Dalziel, Paul, 2007. "The demand for money in China 1987-2004: A non-linear modelling approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 190-204.
    2. Xu, Yingfeng, 1998. "Money Demand in China: A Disaggregate Approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 544-564, September.
    3. Zuo, Haomiao & Park, Sung Y., 2011. "Money demand in China and time-varying cointegration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 330-343, September.
    4. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    5. Ghysels, Eric & Perron, Pierre, 1993. "The effect of seasonal adjustment filters on tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 57-98.
    6. Hafer R. W. & Kutan A. M., 1993. "Further Evidence on Money, Output, and Prices in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 701-709, September.
    7. Qin, Duo, 1994. "Money demand in China: The effect of economic reform," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 253-271.
    8. Stefan Gerlach & Janet Kong, 2005. "Money and Inflation in China," Working Papers 0504, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    9. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    10. Feltenstein, Andrew & Farhadian, Ziba, 1987. "Fiscal Policy, Monetary Targets, and the Price Level in a Centrally Planned Economy: An Application to the Case of China," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(2), pages 137-156, May.
    11. Yu, Qiao & Tsui, Albert K., 2000. "Monetary services and money demand in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 134-148, December.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2007. "How Stable Is The Demand For Money In China?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 21-33, June.
    13. Park, Joon Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 2001. "Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 117-161, January.
    14. Jun Ma, 1996. "Monetary management and intergovernmental relations in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 145-153, January.
    15. Pentecost, Eric J & Moore, Tomoe, 2006. "Financial Liberalization in India and a New Test of the Complementarity Hypothesis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(2), pages 487-502, January.
    16. Pawel H. Dembinski, 1988. "Quantity versus Allocation of Money: Monetary Problems of the Centrally Planned Economies Reconsidered," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 281-300, May.
    17. Saikkonen, Pentti & Choi, In, 2004. "Cointegrating Smooth Transition Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 301-340, April.
    18. In Choi & Pentti Saikkonen, 2004. "Testing linearity in cointegrating smooth transition regressions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 341-365, December.
    19. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1999. "Asymptotics For Nonlinear Transformations Of Integrated Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 269-298, June.
    20. Hasan, Mohammad S., 1999. "Monetary Growth and Inflation in China: A Reexamination," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 669-685, December.
    21. Park, Joon Y. & Hahn, Sang B., 1999. "Cointegrating Regressions With Time Varying Coefficients," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 664-703, October.
    22. Chow, Gregory C., 1987. "Money and price level determination in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 319-333, September.
    23. repec:zbw:bofitp:2006_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Aaron Mehrotra, 2008. "Demand for Money in Transition: Evidence from China’s Disinflation," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 36-47, February.
    25. ., 2007. "The Theory of the Demand for Money," Chapters, in: The Causes, Costs and Compensations of Inflation, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    26. Chen, Baizhu, 1997. "Long-Run Money Demand and Inflation in China," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 609-617, July.
    27. Ma, Guonan, 1993. "Macroeconomic disequilibrium, structural changes, and the household savings and money demand in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 115-136, June.
    28. Girardin, Eric, 1996. "Is There a Long Run Demand for Currency in China?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 169-184.
    29. Carsten A Holz, 2000. "The Changing Role of Money in China and Its Implications," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 42(3), pages 77-100, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Roberts & Graham White, 2015. "Seasonal Adjustment of Chinese Economic Statistics," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-13, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Chen, Xiaohong & Wohlfarth, Paul & Smith, Ron P., 2021. "China's money demand in a cointegrating vector error correction model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. ALBULESCU, Claudiu Tiberiu & Pepin, Dominique, 2018. "Monetary Integration, Money-Demand Stability, and the Role of Monetary Overhang in Forecasting Inflation in CEE Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(4), pages 841-879.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_027 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Carsten Holz, 2014. "Explaining money demand in China during the transition from a centrally planned to a market-based monetary system," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 376-400, September.
    3. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Holz, Carsten, 2013. "Understanding Money Demand in the Transition from a Centrally Planned to a Market Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 9721, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Austin, Darran & Ward, Bert & Dalziel, Paul, 2007. "The demand for money in China 1987-2004: A non-linear modelling approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 190-204.
    5. repec:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:1:p:36-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Aaron Mehrotra, 2008. "Demand for Money in Transition: Evidence from China’s Disinflation," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 36-47, February.
    7. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "The Evolution of Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14611.
    8. Aaron Mehrotra, 2008. "Demand for Money in Transition: Evidence from China’s Disinflation," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 36-47, February.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2006_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2007. "How Stable Is The Demand For Money In China?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 21-33, June.
    11. Chen, Xiaohong & Wohlfarth, Paul & Smith, Ron P., 2021. "China's money demand in a cointegrating vector error correction model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    12. Ge Wu, 2009. "Broad Money Demand and Asset Substitution in China," IMF Working Papers 2009/131, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Hwang, Jen-Te & Wen, Min, 2024. "Electronic payments and money demand in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 47-64.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Dan Xi & Sahar Bahmani, 2016. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money in China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(15), pages 1104-1109, October.
    15. Zuo, Haomiao & Park, Sung Y., 2011. "Money demand in China and time-varying cointegration," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 330-343, September.
    16. Xu, Yingfeng, 1998. "Money Demand in China: A Disaggregate Approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 544-564, September.
    17. Jean-Philippe Gervais, 2011. "Disentangling nonlinearities in the long- and short-run price relationships: an application to the US hog/pork supply chain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(12), pages 1497-1510.
    18. Li, Dao & He, Changli, 2012. "Testing for Linear Cointegration Against Smooth-Transition Cointegration," Working Papers 2012:6, Örebro University, School of Business.
    19. Cargill, Thomas F. & Parker, Elliott, 2004. "Price deflation, money demand, and monetary policy discontinuity: a comparative view of Japan, China, and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 125-147, March.
    20. Chen, Haiqiang & Fang, Ying & Li, Yingxing, 2015. "Estimation And Inference For Varying-Coefficient Models With Nonstationary Regressors Using Penalized Splines," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 753-777, August.
    21. Miller, Stephen M. & Martins, Luis Filipe & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "A Time-Varying Approach Of The Us Welfare Cost Of Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 775-797, March.
    22. repec:wyi:journl:002195 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Rickard Sandberg, 2017. "Sample Moments and Weak Convergence to Multivariate Stochastic Power Integrals," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(6), pages 1000-1009, November.
    24. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Mohd, Siti Hamizah & Mansur M. Masih, A., 2009. "The stability of money demand in China: Evidence from the ARDL model," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 231-244, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2011_027. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofitfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.