Time preference and decision rules in a price search experiment
Structural econometric methods that assume agents have rational expectations are often criticized. Yet, little is known about the relative costs and benefits of adopting alternative empirical strategies. This paper compares three procedures for inference about a single structural parameter using data from a laboratory price search experiment. Our novel experimental design induces preferences up to the subjective rate of time preference, leaving unrestricted only this parameter and the decision rule that subjects use in solving the search task. We analyze the experimental data under the assumptions of both rational expectations and heuristic behavior, and we also draw inferences using a simple revealed preference analysis that does not require strong behavioral assumptions. We find that the revealed-preference analysis does not provide much information about the discount rate, while the two specifications with stronger behavioral assumptions provide sharper and statistically identical inferences about the population's discount rate distribution. However, substantial differences in inference appear at the individual level. We compare the individual discount-rate estimates to an external measure of forward looking behavior obtained for each subject using an instrument validated in the psychology literature. The estimates obtained under heuristic behavior are statistically significantly positively correlated with our external measure of time preference, while the estimates obtained under rational expectations and the revealed-preference estimates are not.
|Date of creation:||22 Sep 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504 at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (49) (0) 621-292-2547
Fax: (49) (0) 621-292-5594
Web page: http://www.sfb504.uni-mannheim.de/
More information through EDIRC
Web page: http://www.sfb504.uni-mannheim.de
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Geweke, John & Houser, Dan & Keane, Michael, 1999. "Simulation Based Inference for Dynamic Multinomial Choice Models," MPRA Paper 54279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- El-Gamal, Mahmoud A. & Grether, David M., 1995. "Are People Bayesian? Uncovering Behavioral Strategies," Working Papers 919, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:01-34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carsten Schmidt)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Carsten Schmidt to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.