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Measuring the Epidemiological Impact of a False Negative : Evidence from a Natural Experiment

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  • Fetzer, Thiemo

    (University of Warwick, CAGE, CESifo and CEPR)

Abstract

Reliable COVID-19 testing remains a central pillar to manage the pandemic. Yet, the accuracy and reliability of tests and test equipment has regularly been brought into question. Both false-positive and false-negative test results convey costs. Yet, false negatives are likely more problematic due to the risk of onward transmission and the failure to break infection chains as a result. This paper studies the epidemiological impact of a false negative in the context of a high vaccine uptake country. Between 2 September and 12 October an estimated 43,000 PCR tests in the UK may have produced a false negative test result with individuals infected being told that they tested negative. These instances were particularly pronounced in the South West of England. Using a synthetic control method approach concentrating on the 13 most affected regions, this paper estimates that every false negative COVID-19 case is likely to have caused between 0.6 to 1.6 additional infections in the subsequent weeks

Suggested Citation

  • Fetzer, Thiemo, 2021. "Measuring the Epidemiological Impact of a False Negative : Evidence from a Natural Experiment," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1386, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1386
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thiemo Fetzer & Thomas Graeber, 2021. "Measuring the scientific effectiveness of contact tracing: Evidence from a natural experiment," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(33), pages 2100814118-, August.
    2. Jason Abaluck & Laura H Kwong & Ashley Styczynski & Ashraful Haque & Md. Alamgir Kabir & Ellen Bates-Jefferys & Emily Crawford & Jade Benjamin-Chung & Salim Benhachmi & Shabib Raihan & Shadman Rahman , 2021. "Normalizing Community Mask-Wearing: A Cluster Randomized Trial in Bangladesh," NBER Working Papers 28734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bagues, Manuel & Dimitrova, Velichka, 2021. "The Psychological Gains from COVID-19 Vaccination: Who Benefits the Most?," IZA Discussion Papers 14826, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 124130, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    5. Mitze, Timo & Kosfeld, Reinhold & Rode, Johannes & Wälde, Klaus, 2020. "Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 124587, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    6. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    7. Chris Wymant & Luca Ferretti & Daphne Tsallis & Marcos Charalambides & Lucie Abeler-Dörner & David Bonsall & Robert Hinch & Michelle Kendall & Luke Milsom & Matthew Ayres & Chris Holmes & Mark Briers , 2021. "The epidemiological impact of the NHS COVID-19 app," Nature, Nature, vol. 594(7863), pages 408-412, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    False Negative ; Natural Experiment ; Test Error ; Health ; Coronavirus JEL Classification: I31 ; Z18;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • Z1 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics

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