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Measuring the Epidemiological Impact of a False Negative: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

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Listed:
  • Fetzer, Thiemo

    (University of Warwick, CAGE, CESifo and CEPR)

Abstract

Reliable COVID-19 testing remains a central pillar to manage the pandemic. Yet, the accuracy and reliability of tests and test equipment has regularly been brought into question. Both false-positive and false-negative test results convey costs. Yet, false negatives are likely more problematic due to the risk of onward transmission and the failure to break infection chains as a result. This paper studies the epidemiological impact of a false negative in the context of a high vaccine uptake country. Between 2 September and 12 October an estimated 43,000 PCR tests in the UK may have produced a false negative test result with individuals infected being told that they tested negative. These instances were particularly pronounced in the South West of England. Using a synthetic control method approach concentrating on the 13 most affected regions, this paper estimates that every false negative COVID-19 case is likely to have caused between 0.6 to 1.6 additional infections in the subsequent weeks.

Suggested Citation

  • Fetzer, Thiemo, 2021. "Measuring the Epidemiological Impact of a False Negative: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 596, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:596
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Timo Mitze & Reinhold Kosfeld & Johannes Rode & Klaus Wälde, 2020. "Face Masks Considerably Reduce Covid-19 Cases in Germany," Working Papers 2016, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
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    JEL classification:

    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • Z1 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics

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