IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpma/9508004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How sensitive are estimated trends to data definitions? Results for East Asian and G-5 countries

Author

Listed:
  • Yin-Wong Cheung

    (University of California at Santa Cruz)

  • Menzie Chinn
  • Tron Tran

Abstract

This paper examines whether test results characterizing per capita output as either trend or difference stationary are sensitive to whether output is valued in domestic currency terms, or in some international numeraire, such as the Summers and Heston (1991) international dollar. Using the conventional ADF test, and the Kwiatkowski et al. (1992) test with a trend stationary null, we find that for economies such as those of the East Asian countries, the best description of the persistence of the data does depend upon the valuation of output. No such discrepancy is found for the output series of the G-5 countries. We conclude that researchers should be extremely cautious about making generalizations regarding the time series properties of output.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Tron Tran, 1995. "How sensitive are estimated trends to data definitions? Results for East Asian and G-5 countries," Macroeconomics 9508004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9508004
    Note: WP 5.1 DOS with HP laserjet printer compatable. ASIAN.WP Econometrics
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/9508/9508004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/9508/9508004.ps.gz
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/mac/papers/9508/9508004.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 329-379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 1996. "Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 134-162, January.
    5. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    6. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer (ed.), 1991. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262521652, December.
    7. Robert Summers & Alan Heston, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 327-368.
    8. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-470, October.
    9. Paul M. Romer, 1990. "Capital, Labor, and Productivity," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990 Micr), pages 337-367.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kristian Jönsson, 2011. "Testing Stationarity in Small‐ and Medium‐Sized Samples when Disturbances are Serially Correlated," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 669-690, October.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Fujii, Eiji, 2000. "Which Measure of Aggregate Output Should We Use?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-269, April.
    3. David E. A. Giles & Betty J. Johnson, 1999. "Taxes, Risk-Aversion, and the Size of the Underground Economy: A Nonparametric Analysis With New Zealand Data," Econometrics Working Papers 9910, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    4. Deb, Surajit, 2004. "Terms of Trade and Investment Behaviour in Indian Agriculture: A Cointegration Analysis," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 1-22.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 1996. "Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 134-162, January.
    2. Henrekson, Magnus & Torstensson, Johan & Torstensson, Rasha, 1997. "Growth effects of European integration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1537-1557, August.
    3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D, 1997. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 68-73, January.
    4. Garrison, Charles B. & Lee, Feng-Yao, 1995. "The effect of macroeconomic variables on economic growth rates: A cross-country study," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-317.
    5. Eleanor Doyle & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2006. "Relating Productivity and Trade 1980-2000: A Chicken and Egg Analysis," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 147, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    6. V. V. Chari & Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 1996. "Inflation, growth, and financial intermediation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 78(May), pages 41-58.
    7. Vatcharin Sirimaneetham & Jonathan Temple, 2006. "Macroeconomic policy and the distribution of growth rates," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/584, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    8. Dotsey, Michael & Ireland, Peter, 1996. "The welfare cost of inflation in general equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 29-47, February.
    9. De Gregorio, Jose, 1993. "Inflation, taxation, and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 271-298, June.
    10. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Dudley, Leonard & Montmarquette, Claude, 1999. "Le secteur public : moteur de croissance ou obstruction à l’industrie?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 75(1), pages 357-377, mars-juin.
    12. Joel Slemrod, 1995. "What Do Cross-Country Studies Teach about Government Involvement, Prosperity, and Economic Growth?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 373-431.
    13. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "The Growth of Nations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 275-326.
    14. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Palomba, Giulio, 2009. "Nonlinear adjustment in US bond yields: An empirical model with conditional heteroskedasticity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 659-667, May.
    15. Mamingi Nlandu, 2017. "Beauty and Ugliness of Aggregation over Time: A Survey," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(3), pages 205-227, December.
    16. Bagella, Michele & Becchetti, Leonardo & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2004. "The anticipated and concurring effects of the EMU: exchange rate volatility, institutions and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1053-1080.
    17. Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2008. "Empirics of Growth and Development," Chapters, in: Amitava Krishna Dutt & Jaime Ros (ed.), International Handbook of Development Economics, Volumes 1 & 2, volume 0, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Rómulo Chumacero & Rodrigo Fuentes, 2005. "On the Determinants of Chilean Economic Growth," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.),General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 5, pages 163-188, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 2001. "Volatile Policy and Private Information: The Case of Monetary Shocks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 99(1-2), pages 265-296, July.
    20. Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Unit-Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 265-273, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9508004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask EconWPA to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.