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Financial Dollarization and the Size of the Fear

Author

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  • Juan F. Castro

    (Universidad del Pacífico)

  • Eduardo Morón

    (Universidad del Pacífico)

Abstract

Based on the significance of a Minimum Variance Portfolio (MVP) for the understanding of dollarization equilibria, a significant strand of the debate concerned with the driving forces behind this phenomenon has focused on analyzing the determinants of the relative volatility of inflation vis-à-vis real depreciation. This analysis contributes in the identification of those factors by extending the basic CAPM formulation via the introduction of credit risk that is directly linked to the shock that determines real returns for dollar denominated assets: unanticipated shifts in the real exchange rate. We show this ingredient can end up altering the perceived relative volatility of peso and dollar assets in a way that fuels financial dollarization (by increasing the relative hedging opportunities offered by the latter). We calibrate our model using Peruvian data for the period 1998-2004, and its predictions show a better fit with observed financial dollarization ratios than those of the basic CAPM model.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan F. Castro & Eduardo Morón, 2005. "Financial Dollarization and the Size of the Fear," Macroeconomics 0509027, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0509027
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 24
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 295-330, March.
    2. Eduardo Moron & Juan F. Castro & Diego Winkelried, 2004. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability in Partially Dollarized Economies," International Finance 0406002, EconWPA.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    4. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2014. "Addicted to Dollars," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 1-50, May.
    6. Alain Ize, 2005. "Financial Dollarization Equilibria; A Framework for Policy Analysis," IMF Working Papers 05/186, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dell'Erba, Salvatore & Saldías Zambrana, Martin, 2006. "Financial dollarization and currency substitution: an empirical study for Bolivia," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 432, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial dollarization; Minimum Variance Portfolio; Peru;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models

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