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The relative influence of US and Japan on real interest rates around the Pacific Rim


  • Menzie Chinn

    (University of California at Berkeley)

  • Jeffery Frankel

    (University of California at Berkeley)


This paper investigates the relative influence of US and Japanese real interest rates in the determination of local Pacific Rim rates, where influence is defined by the presence of common stochastic trends. Alternatively, we ask whether real rates are driven by the same shocks. Furthermore, the degree to which real interest parity holds is examined. Rather than searching for instantaneous real interest parity, this study searches for long run interest parity, allowing for a constant due to differing risk attributes and time invariant exchange risk premia. The cointegration testing methodology of Johansen (1988) is adopted for this analysis, which allows for multiple cointegrating vectors. The results indicate that Hong Kong, Malaysia and Taiwan are integrated with both the US and Japan (in terms of cointegration and positive covariation), while only Singapore is solely integrated with the US. On the other hand Korea, and perhaps Indonesia and Thailand appear to be more closely linked with Japan. Real interest parity holds for only the following interest rate pairs: US-Singapore, US- Taiwan and Japan-Taiwan.

Suggested Citation

  • Menzie Chinn & Jeffery Frankel, 1995. "The relative influence of US and Japan on real interest rates around the Pacific Rim," International Finance 9508004, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:9508004
    Note: PACRMINT.WP International Finance

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-1125, December.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," NBER Chapters,in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 227-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    4. Reuven Glick, 1987. "Interest rate linkages in the Pacific Basin," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 31-42.
    5. Gagnon, Joseph E & Unferth, Mark D, 1995. "Is there a world real interest rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 845-855, December.
    6. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    7. Michael M. Hutchison & Nirvikar Singh, 1993. "Long-term international capital mobility: new evidence from equilibrium real interest rate linkages," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 93-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 1990. "Financial liberalization in the Pacific Basin: Implications for real interest rate linkages," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 36-48, March.
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Maurice Obstfeld., 1993. "Model Trending Real Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-011, University of California at Berkeley.
    11. Richard C. Marston, 1992. "Determinants of Shrt-Term Real Interest Differentials Between Japan and the United States," NBER Working Papers 4167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Mitsuhiro Fukao & Masaharu Hanazaki, 1986. "Internationalisation of Financial Markets: Some Implications for Macroeconomic Policy and for the Allocation of Capital," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 37, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chan Tze Haw & Khong Wye Leong Roy & Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2003. "Dynamic Financial Linkages of Japan And Asean Economies: An Application of Real Interest Parity," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 11(1&2), pages 23-40.

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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance


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