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Evaluating the Hedging Potential of the Lean Hog Futures Contract

Author

Listed:
  • Mark W. Ditsch

    (Consolidated Grain & Barge Company)

  • Raymond M. Leuthold

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

Abstract

The lean hog futures contract is replacing the live hog futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange beginning with the February 1997 contract. The lean hog futures will be cash settled based on a broad-based lean hog price index, eliminating terminal markets from the price discovery process. Using this index over a twenty-month period as a proxy for the lean hog futures price, this paper compares the hedging effectiveness of the live hog futures contract to the hedging potential of the lean hog futures contract for cash live hogs as well as four cash meat cuts. Frozen pork bellies futures are also examined for the cash meats. Both long-term and short-term hedges are simulated, using the minimum-variance approach, which utilizes only unconditional information, and the Myers-Thompson approach that incorporates conditional information. The results show that the lean hog futures should perform better than either the live hog or the frozen pork bellies futures as a hedging instrument for Omaha cash hogs and cash loins. The strongest evidence of this is for the short-term hedging of cash hogs. For the other three meats, no futures contract demonstrated a clear hedging advantage.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark W. Ditsch & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1996. "Evaluating the Hedging Potential of the Lean Hog Futures Contract," Finance 9609003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9609003
    Note: Type of Document - Word Perfect 6.1; prepared on PC; to print on HP Laser Jet 4; pages: 23. Office for Futures and Options Research (OFOR) at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. Working Paper 96-03. For a complete list of OFOR working papers see
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Myers & Stanley R. Thompson, 1989. "Generalized Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(4), pages 858-868.
    2. Marvin L. Hayenga & Dennis D. DiPietre, 1982. "Cross-Hedging Wholesale Pork Products Using Live Hog Futures," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(4), pages 747-751.
    3. Hayenga, Marvin L. & Jiang, B. & Kweon, J. H. & Lence, Sergio H., 1994. "Cross Hedging Wholesale Beef and Pork Products," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11399, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Stanley R. Thompson & Gary E. Bond, 1987. "Offshore Commodity Hedging under Floating Exchange Rates," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(1), pages 46-55.
    5. Kandice H. Kahl, 1983. "Determination of the Recommended Hedging Ratio," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(3), pages 603-605.
    6. Hayenga, Marvin L. & DiPietre, Dennis D., 1982. "Cross-Hedging Wholesale Pork Products Using Live Hog Futures," Staff General Research Papers Archive 11305, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Stewart L. Brown, 1985. "A Reformulation of the Portfolio Model of Hedging," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(3), pages 508-512.
    8. Anne E. Peck, 1975. "Hedging and Income Stability: Concepts, Implications, and an Example," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 57(3), pages 410-419.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Wang, Qizhi & Chidmi, Benaissa, 2009. "Cotton Price Risk Management across Different Countries," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46762, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Christian Dunis & Pierre Lequeux, 2000. "Intraday data and hedging efficiency in interest spread trading," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 332-352.
    4. Sanders, Dwight R. & Greer, Tracy D., 2002. "Hedging Spot Corn: An Examination Of The Minneapolis Grain Exchange'S Cash Settled Corn Contract," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19064, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    5. A. D. Clare & M. C. Oozeer, 2001. "Hedging sterling eurobond portfolios: a proposal for eurobond futures contract," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 37-44.
    6. Frank, Julieta & Gomez, Miguel I. & Kunda, Eugene L. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "Cash Settlement of Lean Hog Futures Contracts Reexamined," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37611, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    7. Lien, Donald & Tse, Yiu Kuen, 2006. "A survey on physical delivery versus cash settlement in futures contracts," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 15-29.
    8. Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2003. "Minimum Variance Hedging And The Encompassing Principle: Assessing The Effectiveness Of Futures Hedges," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22247, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    lean hog futures contract; hedging;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

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