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Cash Settlement of Lean Hog Futures Contracts Reexamined

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  • Frank, Julieta
  • Gomez, Miguel I.
  • Kunda, Eugene L.
  • Garcia, Philip

Abstract

In 1997 the Chicago Mercantile Exchange replaced its live hog futures contract with a cash settlement mechanism based on a Lean Hog Index. Although cash settlement was expected to increase the use of the contract as a hedging tool, producers and packers are concerned that convergence between cash and futures prices is not occurring and that the volatility of the lean hog contract basis has increased in recent years. The purpose of the paper is to reexamine cash settlement of lean hog futures contracts as a hedging tool, focusing on basis behavior and management of basis risk. We also investigate alternative hedging instruments that take into account location differences between regional cash prices and the CME lean hog index. Our results indicate that basis has widened and its variability prior to expiration has increased in the cash settlement period. Nevertheless, there is no evidence that ex-ante basis risk has increased, suggesting that the ability to forecast basis prior to expiration has not decreased with cash settlement. Our findings indicate that a contract on a regional basis can reduce producer price risk and may increase market returns. The benefits of a regional basis appear to accrue from providing the producer with an opportunity to manage the variability in returns associated with both the price level and basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank, Julieta & Gomez, Miguel I. & Kunda, Eugene L. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "Cash Settlement of Lean Hog Futures Contracts Reexamined," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37611, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:nccest:37611
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.37611
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William G. Tomek, 1980. "Price Behavior on a Declining Terminal Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(3), pages 434-444.
    2. Chan, Leo & Lien, Donald, 2003. "Using high, low, open, and closing prices to estimate the effects of cash settlement on futures prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 35-47.
    3. Mark W. Ditsch & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1996. "Evaluating the Hedging Potential of the Lean Hog Futures Contract," Finance 9609003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Shroeder, Ted C. & Mintert, James R., 1988. "Hedging Feeder Steers And Heifers In The Cash-Settled Feeder Cattle Futures Market," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Schmitz, John D., 1997. "Basis Convergence in Cattle Contracts Before and After Changes to Delivery Specifications," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\ Sparks, Nevada 35885, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    6. Elam, Emmett W., 1988. "Estimated Hedging Risk With Cash Settlement Feeder Cattle Futures," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, July.
    7. Ditsch, Mark W. & Leuthold, Raymond M., 1996. "Evaluating The Hedging Potential Of The Lean Hog Futures Contract," ACE OFOR Reports 14769, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Franken, Jason R.V. & Parcell, Joseph L. & Tonsor, Glynn T., 2011. "Impact of Mandatory Price Reporting on Hog Market Integration," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 1-13, May.

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